Has Iraq sunk Blair's presidency hopes?

The presidency of Europe is slipping rapidly from Tony Blair’s hands.

My sources in Brussels and elsewhere report a rapid sea change in the former prime minister’s fortunes as ratification of the Lisbon treaty creeps closer (the Czech president could reluctantly sign it within a week).

Those sources tell me that Blair’s candidacy has been hit heavily by the opening of the Iraq inquiry.

European leaders are now horrified at the thought that the EU’s first president could find himself almost immediately under very heavy public scrutiny at a formal inquiry into the Iraq war.

The “blood on your hands” incident at the St Paul’s cathedral memorial service last week added to the misgivings. The idea that assorted families might continue to accuse Europe’s president of having blood on his hands does not appeal to those who have to make the decision as to who should become the European Union’s figurehead.

But the message has also been heard loud and clear in the European Council that for Mr Blair to become president will have no positive effect on Britain’s attitude to the union. Indeed, diplomats are warning them that the effect might even be dramatically negative.

Coupled with the belief that a Conservative government may take power in Britain next year, the thought of a Tory euro sceptic prime minister at loggerheads with an erstwhile Labour prime minister does not attract.

I am told that Mr Blair’s candidacy, which once looked a shoe-in at 90-10, has slipped this month to well under 50 “and still on the slide”.

At the same time, there is increasing talk that the best candidate for the other job on offer, that of high representative for foreign affairs – a potentially more important job than the presidency itself – could be offered to Britain’s foreign secretary, David Miliband, whose ratings in Europe have been in the ascendancy for the past six months.

Mr Blair, on the other hand, does have one fervent supporter: the man whose house guest he was on several occasions during his premiership, Silvio Berlusconi. And with friends like Berlusconi…

In fairness to Mr Blair, as far as he is concerned he has never been a candidate. The understanding he has left with the European Council is that if they want him, they must ask him – and he will probably accept.

My information is that he is increasingly unlikely to be asked.