Libya: why intervention into revolution may not go

We are back where so many of us have been before.

“Humanitarian disaster” – have we heard those words before? We heard them of Kosovo before the Nato intervention went ahead without UN approval. We are hearing them again now of Libya. The navies and airforces of the West are jostling in the Med for potential action. Yet what is happening in Libya is a very Libyan development – just as Egypt‘s Tahrir Square was a very Egyptian affair. The infection may have been triggered by Tunisia but the manifestations have been peculiar to each country. None more peculiar than Libya, and it was ever so.

I first went there around thirty years ago – Gaddafi had already been in power for a dozen years. His methodology was odd, his behaviour still more so. His Little Green Book was no mimic of Mao’s red one. It was about dispersal of power to the villages of Libya – kind of peasant empowerment. Yet it all seemed to end up with all power centralised upon Gaddafi himself. As the years went by his hold became murkier and more eccentric than ever. His influences in the outside world moved in and out of assorted individuals, companies, and movements. A bank here, an oil company there, an LSE there.

Saif Gaddafi first arrived in London an apparent breath of fresh air seven or eight years ago. Westernised, supposedly. I found myself once in his Belgravia apartment trying to secure an interview. What a grand place – ultra modern, loads of stone and black marble – cutting edge. But he was odd. He was somehow inexpressively moody, dark, yet somehow also available. He clearly wanted his country reengaged with the outside world, but without questioning the role of his father in Libya’s disengagement.

Neither Saif nor his father will go easily, as they are proving. They have a stranglehold on the power system in Tripoli and can potentially hold out for months, if not years. The West would be ill-advised to attempt physically to speed the process up. That way lies a violation fo Libya which many rebels will rejoin Gaddafi in resenting. This is a Libyan affair for the Libyans to resolve. At its end, Gaddafi and his son will die in Tripoli. They regard themselves as indistinguishable from Libya. They are convinced that they are Libya, Libya is them.

The most likely scenario remains that Gaddafi will be taken out by one of his own, not by us.

Across the Arab world, there is little real sign that any of these revolutions is running smoothly. Vast “people power” is both heavenly, and fearful, to behold – however, it does not change either a country or a system overnight. The upheavals across the Arab world may take many years to resolve. Tunisia‘s revolt is apparently marginally in reverse. Egypt’s is still many more words than tangible action. But the work is begun. It is up to us to let it take its course. I never met one Arab revolutionary who wished for outside intervention or interference.

Whilst we obsess about Gaddafi’s hold – as we have for more than a generation, other movements challenge our interests in the region. Yemen, teeters on the edge of total disintegration. Oman is becoming nastier, with a very British underbelly of ex-army officers at its security core. Jordan remains hard to forecast and far from happy. Kuwait and Saudi rumble uneasily. Sudan festers. Morocco grumbles. Algeria may hold on. It’s a litany of repression and rebellion in unequal mix in which none of our hands are clean.

Dropping bombs, knocking off Gaddafi, doing any more than sheer isolation of unpopular leaders (freezing assets and outside interests is popular) will almost certainly end in Saddam like tears. Revolution will have to take its course. The world has few other viable options, and war is not one of them.