Obama in trouble, Palin up: why America is now in with a chance of recovery

I attended a grim Tea Party last night at the Hyatt hotel in Washington. Grim, because it had all the hallmarks of a wake. In fairness, the more vibrant elements of the Tea Party movement were out in the States where they had been working to win. But the 150 or so folk at this party were slumped around litter-strewn tables, consuming pungent cuisine, and rarely raising a cheer. Polling suggests what we could see for ourselves, this is a movement of older voters of both sexes.

But make no mistake, their “Queen”, Sarah Palin, is on a roll. Or nearly.

There are at least eight people in Congress and several Governors whom she can claim have been elected thanks to her coat tails. But in her home state of Alaska she may have taken a tumble. Her candidate may be beaten by the more conventional incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski – who, if she wins (it will take three weeks to find out!) will have done so by having her name written in on the ballot paper – something that hasn’t happened since 1954! (She had been beaten in the race to chose which Republican candidate should run for her seat).

The US Presidential campaign 2012 starts right here and it looks bad for Barack Obama. A stonkingly bad night for the Democrat Party. They lost over 50 seats in the House of Representatives, and their majority in the Senate could be as low as 51 per cent to 49 per cent.

But there’s worse news for Obama. It lies in the bits of the election that we, beyond American shores, don’t give a damn about. The races for Governor in individual states have gone heavily to the Republicans. Presidential elections are won and lost in individual States. Obama will find it very hard to campaign in States now in the hands of the Republicans. Ohio is a good instance – Democrats in 2008 delivered for Obama under Governor Ted Strickland – Obama dashed back to help him at the weekend but to no avail, Strickland’s gone.

The re-election of President Obama in 2012 is looking much less certain as of today. The prospects of Mrs Palin on the other hand are still on the up, despite three high profile losses last night.

One piece of good news for Obama. He’s a consensus man. He has striven, so far fruitlessly to work with the “other side”. But after last night, the “just say no” posture of Republicans in Congress that has dogged US politics ever since Obama’s election will almost certainly have to end too.

The book he took with him into the White House, along with the Bible, was Doris Kearns Goodwin’s “Team of Rivals”. It details how Lincoln gathered his opponents together in one great “team America” to deliver peace and prosperity to Civil war ravaged America. It’s what Obama will now try to do to create what the US needs more than ever, jobs, and an economic transformation.