Our first post-Obama search for leadership
I sat eight feet in front of David Cameron yesterday morning questioning him at his press conference at Tory Campaign HQ. “Would he pledge not to change the electoral system if he gets into Downing Street?” I asked. “I do not want the electoral system changed”, he answered.
My sense is that we are not alone in our recognition that a ‘hung Parliament‘ is a serious possibility next week – Mr Cameron is of our number too. My sense is also that if he ever wants a taste of power, Mr Cameron knows he will have to trade his resistance to a referendum on the matter.
Curiously few people have noted that we have been in these dog days of ‘hung parliament’ speculation within our lifetime. The seasoned political commentator David McKie notes that we all thought it was highly likely back in 1992.
Neil Kinnock had enjoyed a stuttering lead for Labour throughout the campaign, but in truth, we all knew the polls were too close to call. In the event incumbent John Major clambered to a sustainable 21 seat majority. Voters were once again unimpressed with the leaders on offer but did in the end ‘cling to nurse for fear of worse’.
The difference this time is that the Lib Dem strength appears more formidable than it did then, and the Labour vote softer than it appeared then. Since last July I have hazarded that Gordon Brown would do better than at that point seemed likely.
Given his low standing last July, many are surprised that the Labour vote is today anywhere in contention. Certainly it’s a surprise that the polls suggest the three parties are still clustered too close to call.
The other political surprise is that David Cameron having led significantly in the polls for two and half years has lost a degree of traction, and maybe even attraction. These are matters in play behind the X Factor ascent of Mr Clegg.
I am beginning to wonder whether this first post-Obama election really speaks to the frustrated yearning for leadership – the yearning for individuals who stir both the brain nodes and the heart strings. Not an experience we Brits have savoured very often.
Obama offered a new narrative. No one can seriously say that in our economically perilous times anyone is doing that here.
The other night I dined with the grand daughter of the last Liberal Prime Minister, David Lloyd George. She was visiting from Canada, I’m related to her by marriage.
She suddenly exclaimed, ‘I remember the first hung Parliament back in 1929! Grandpa told me what a frightful man Baldwin was’. She was born in 1921 and must therefore have been eight years old at the time.
Despite Lloyd George’s wishes, it wasn’t the end of Baldwin. This may not be the end of Brown either. But this may not be the moment to bet on it.