Pontignano conference: the final messages

This final session of the Pontignano conference is dominated by Obama: whether he will “make it”.

Consensus is that on health care, on a domestic climate change bill, and even in terms of economic recovery, he will…eventually (though he’ll need two terms). How the participants here love Obama – he really does walk on water it seems.

On foreign policy people here are gloomier. Afghanistan will fail. A suggestion that Nato has failed in Afghanistan is not well received, but many interventions assert that Nato no longer works as a credible alliance: there is no common enemy, warfare is asymmetric and an outfit that was designed for symmetric action against Russia is not useful against al-Qaida.

There is total disagreement about a European army; some passionate advocates and some predictable British opponents.

The matter of the UN comes up repeatedly, with France and the UK refusing to countenance giving up their seats at the UN Security Council, frustrating reform.

And as for G8, even Italians apparently believe the political, humanitarian and military architecture of world alliances is unfit for purpose.

And the message from Pontignano? Don’t look to Europe for leadership on any of this. Europe’s leadership is in a dreadful state and about to get worse. The general perception here is that David Cameron’s Tories have no interest in Europe.

I’m off back to the “day job” – I know where my editor sits and where the coffee is brewed. I don’t have to think big thoughts about the future of the world we live in, just try to get tonight’s Channel 4 News sorted out.