The 'bigot' in the electoral mix
In this X Factor election, the X Factor that Gordon Brown’s aides fought for us never to see, has been seen. The problem for Labour is that in this ‘personality’ driven contest, an event has occurred that is about personality laced with policy.
Some have argued that Mr Brown’s “bigoted woman” moment is not a game changer. Mr Brown attacked a core Labour voter about a core issue which has dominated all our own interactions with the electorate.
The danger for Labour under Brown, was that it would never be able to push beyond its core vote. Now it may have threatened even that ‘tribal’ rump of voters who have never voted for anyone else.
I have described this election as the “none of the above” vote. The BBC’s Poll of Polls today suggests 67 per cent of the electorate do NOT want Cameron’s Tories; 70 per cent do NOT want Clegg’s Lib Dems; and 72 per cent do NOT want Brown’s Labour.
The game changer in Mr Brown’s ‘accident’, is that it undermines the one ground upon which voters might have broken from the pack – the idea that in disliking the choice on offer, voters would stick with nurse (Brown) for fear of worse.
His behaviour – worse, the revelation that what so many have talked about is true, is now a campaign issue.
Brown’s X Factor advantage had been that, whilst we were told there was a personable, kindly, and effective Brown, there was also a nasty ‘finger jabbing’ four letter word uttering Brown. But we never had to witness it – until yesterday.
Where does the disaffected Labour core rump go? The BNP – a few? UKIP – fewer? Stay at home – more? Cameron – very few? Clegg … mmmm? That is the biggest question now posed by the “bigoted woman” incident. At best, Labour will hang onto its unelectably low poll rating.
It’s hard to see the Tories doing something the polls suggest Cameron has failed to do thus far – pick up swathes of disaffected core Labour voters. That leaves Clegg’s Liberal Democrats.
There is polling evidence that he has drawn support from Labour’s softer fringes. It is possible that in the first instant he will pick up crucial Labour votes in Lib Dem/Tory marginals – the unanswered question is can he do more – it’s unlikely that the old Labour rump vote will flood to him. If it did, he would be within hailing distance of Number 10.
So, curiously, whilst the “bigoted woman” incident is probably terminal for Brown, and disastrous for Labour, it is bad news for Cameron too.
That’s because the first surge of transfers to Clegg affects more Tory held seats than Labour – a secondary surge is required to start handing Labour seats to the Conservatives.
And now, as Greece sinks, Spain and Portugal totter, Ireland wobbles and analysts warn of blow back from Greece affecting the US, Japan and the UK – on the brink of what looks like another looming global financial crisis – there is another debate tonight this time, poignantly focused on the economy.