The Bliss of the Undecided

What a backdrop! Markets falling, bankrupt Greece in uproar, Spain’s stock market down 5 per cent. Come vote for ugh, what? Yes, a stable, fiscally sound deficit free Britain er, in Europe.

But Europe is in turmoil, that recent confidence in the Euro that saw the dollar slumping is now itself in doubt. We are in debt, they are in debt, and there appears to be considerable doubt as to whether the international financial system has the capacity to see off a default by more than one European country.

No wonder then that the booming Chinese backed off the world stock market stage yesterday and all but cancelled its issue of convertible bonds in Shanghai. No wonder India’s Essa steel company pulled its dollar bond sale yesterday. No wonder the German property company GSW ran for cover yesterday rather than float its stock on the Frankfurt Exchange.

But pause a moment. Here in the UK, there’s an important manufacturing indicator – the Purchasing Manager’s Index. It doesn’t get the attention it should get. A discreet posting in today’s FT is awash with intriguing and rather hopeful news.

It has hit the highest increase in UK manufacturing output and exports since September 1994. The first three months have seen a 2.5 per cent increase. Sure, it warns about the pressure from high oil prices and raw material costs. despite the verbal slings and arrows hurled at the state of the UK’s manufacturing industry, it remains the sixth biggest in the world.

But what is the voter to make of all this? Are we bust? Is Europe bust? Are we on the cusp of another global financial meltdown? Don’t inspect last month’s UK mortgage figures – lending down year on year by 83 per cent. There remains a credit famine.

I hoped never to have to say it, but Britain is benefiting considerably from being outside the Eurozone. The pound is cheap, fuelling the surge in exports reported by the Purchasing Manager’s Index. There is something to build on providing the global meltdown doesn’t render us insolvent.

What a terrific moment to be deciding who should govern us for the next five years. No wonder a third of voters are still undecided. What fun it must be to enter the booth wondering who to vote for, and to emerge having done so!