Trump’s ‘America First’ and what it means for us
For those of us that were born after the Second World War – and that is the majority of us – these seem to be some of the most uncertain times in modern history.
The Cuban Missile Crisis was a dreadful moment in the Cold War – the closest we’ve come to nuclear apocalypse, but it passed relatively quickly. There has been repression in Russia, chaos in the Middle East, and the spectre of international terrorism in various forms. The most terrifying and terrible was 911, but elsewhere, in places such Iraq and Pakistan suicide bombers and others have claimed tens of thousands. Today the threats are many, and the world is more interconnected than ever before – even at the point at which various nations appear to be turning inward.
1. Climate change
Climate change is gathering pace, and despite the overwhelming scientific consensus the current occupant of the White House appears to be sceptical about the prospect. America is responsible for around 16 per cent of all the carbon emissions on Earth. The President has been elected upon a ticket of aggressively re-opening America’s coal mines. He is a fan of fossil fuels “made in America”, Arctic oil drilling and has appointed a critic of the Environmental Protection Agency to run the agency. His predecessor said that “no challenge poses a greater threat to our future…than a change in climate.” By contrast Myron Ebell, an adviser to President Trump’s administration, says the environmental movement is “the greatest threat to freedom and prosperity in the modern world.”
2. Security
In turning America inward and putting “America first”, he is disengaging from a security role that America has played ever since the afore-mentioned Second World War. Throughout his campaign, Candidate Trump dismissed NATO – the alliance that has underpinned the relative calm since 1945, questioning whether the US would come to the aid of countries who hadn’t paid their way. This Friday Mrs May seemed to secure a commitment from the new President to the alliance that he’d frequently disparaged, a commitment his security team seems to echo.But Trump has also made sympathetic noises towards Putin, and has a habit of varying his position on crucial issues within very short spaces of time. NATO has stood for over seventy years – but could be undone by a series of tweets. Finally he has appointed Steve Bannon to his National Security Council as a permanent presence.
3. Age and immigration
Then there are the global demographics. Germany’s median age is 47-years-old; Africa’s is 19.5-years-old. Ageing populations in Western societies are putting a strain on public services – especially around the area of social care. It was partly this that led Mrs Merkel to open Germany’s doors to Syrian refugees, with all the attendant tensions that have resulted. And people are understandably worried about the pressure that immigrants might put on schools, hospitals and job markets too – especially for the lowest paid. In Britain and America the role of immigration has been clear in driving electoral results that have shocked established elites. Yet the potential turmoil from the climate change refugees of the future could make the events of today look like a ripple in the pond.
4. The Economy
Then there is the inequality across the world stimulated by the distortion of economic systems. The nexus of it is rooted in systemic corruption and widespread abuse. Only last week, the UK’s RBS was visited with yet another nearly three billion pound fine for mis-selling. And let’s be candid – it was not alone, several major financial institutions have been found wanting. Yet again, no individual is sent to jail, and there is little evidence of anyone being punished at all. What would the punishment be for someone who had wrongly taken £4,000 from the benefits system? Many will feel that the lack of punitive action to dis-incentivise others is scandalous in itself. This sense of resentment fed into Donald Trump’s election too – just as it drove the rise of Bernie Sanders on the left. And Hillary Clinton’s closeness with Wall Street definitely did not do her any favours. Trump spoke directly to many who felt left behind by decades of economic hardship. Those who listened to him now expect change. The question is whether a billionaire who has hired several people from the world of finance into senior positions can put it right. He’s tapped into the anger – but can he deal with it?
5. Security
Finally, there is the threat from international “terrorism”. Mr Trump’s executive order will temporarily exclude people from seven majority-Muslim countries peoples from entering the United States. The list of countries was drawn up by the Obama administration but never acted on. But notably by its absence is Saudi Arabia, from where fifteen people came who on 9/11 destroyed the Twin Towers and killed three thousand souls. Incidentally, in the aftermath of this George W. Bush called on NATO to respond – as they did with a years-long action in Afghanistan.
Trump gave his support to the Iraq War in 2002, and the consequences of the 2003 intervention are still being felt. America does not seem to understand its own role in helping to destabilise the many countries who are the subject of its own ban. And just last night Bernie Sanders argued that it would provide “ammunition to the jihadists” at home and abroad. He has urged people instead to reach out to Muslim communities – and refugee communities – in the face of President Trump’s executive order.
As his own inauguration speech made it clear – we can no longer expect America to deal with the crises that beset us. I have set out just five of the many global challenges to international co-operation amid Trump’s enunciated retreat from the global community. It certainly puts Theresa May, isolated from Europe and potentially unable to rely on our traditional strongest ally, in an interesting position.