A few hundred thousand voters will decide the fate of millions
The future of 65 million now lies in the hands of a few hundred thousand. That is the stark reality as we approach the referendum.
Some 4.3 million Scots have registered to vote. More than three quarters of them have firmly made up their minds, according to opinion polls, and they have split down the middle.
The latest polls putting no just ahead might be correct but are simply too close to the margin of error to rely on. So the decision has come down to those struggling to make up their minds. That’s democracy.
As I sit in an Edinburgh cafe writing this with the Orangemen marching through the city I am surrounded by people at tables asking each other “What do you think is going to happen?”
The no campaign hope that if voters haven’t been convinced by independence yet it is because they are worried about the economic consequences and when it comes down to the moment their caution will get the better of them.
The shock and awe fear campaign is targeting them directly in the hope they enter the voting booth thinking: “I may like the idea of independence but we just can’t risk it”.
The yes campaign are hoping voters will be irritated by the exhortations of banks who sunk the economy, supermarkets who sold them horse meat, companies who ripped them off and politicians who let them down.
It is the first time Labour politicians in Scotland have ever said you can trust the Tories. So Alex Salmond needs people to wake up on Thursday feeling the emotional pull of self determination with a sense of: “I don’t really know who’s right on the economics but how bad can it be? Let’s go for it.”
Of those I’ve met who’ve recently swung over to yes the reasons have been almost absurdly varied. There was the woman cross about the prospect of rising interest rates because of a London housing boom, even though independence won’t bring control over interest rates if they keep the pound.
There was the civil servant furious at the idea of MPs getting a 10 per cent pay rise. And the union official who said there was no difference any more between Ed Miliband and David Cameron.
The latecomers to “no” have cited not trusting Alex Salmond and a few “we’re just not ready”. In truth the debate, for all its sophistication and detail, has proved inconclusive.
Less than a week to go and both sides are asking voters to take a leap into the unknown. Yes voters may not know what currency they’ll have but No voters don’t know what new powers will be devolved. They are all being asked to trust politicians when there is no trust in politicians.
If you’re one of those English people thinking this doesn’t really affect you, who thinks nothing much will change either way or: “I wish the Scots’d just sod off if they want to, I’m sick of hearing about it” – don’t fool yourself. A yes vote doesn’t just mean changing the flag and giving Putin a laugh.
The Labour Party loses electoral heartlands making it much harder to win a Westminster election after 2016. Even if they vote no on Thursday there is a lot of change.
More devolution could have a big impact on Westminster. Scottish Labour MPs could lose the right to vote on English matters. That means Ed Miliband could lose the ability to push through changes to English laws even if he wins a majority at the next election.
We could be looking at more regional government in England, an elected House of Lords, more politicians, more elections. Is that what we wanted?
And if you think this will all go away after a no vote don’t be so sure. I can’t see this question disappearing for long as it did in Canada in 1980 and 1995.
It will be back, with a nationalist cry of one more heave. Politics boring? You must be mad!
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