Will David Miliband stay?

Will David Miliband stay or go? His question and answer session at Labour conference will leave more questions than answers. As more than one senior backer of his told me last night it might be better to get the pain out of the way this week. The argument runs quite simply :

1. As former foreign secretary who will not now make it to party leader or prime minister what would be the point of staying in front line politics? There are limits to selflessly serving the party.
2. Now that he is more popular than ever his continued presence could be difficult for his brother Ed. Every time things go badly he might, quite unintentionally, become the focus of dissent with people saying “if only we’d had David” and making constant comparisons.
3. He might be able to help his brother more with policy and political advice from behind the scenes rather than in the shadow cabinet
4. He is still well placed for a big international job of some kind – a second career, rather than playing out his first while still in his mid forties.

So it is quite possible he will not even stand for the shadow cabinet. It could depend on whether or not he thinks the media and party will understand his reasoning or instead interpret it as a sulk or snub. Of course other supporters insist he must stay for the good of the party. One backbench supporter said to me last night “if he goes Ed is screwed. When so many people voted for David he needs him to stay.” All his supports insist the older brother now wants the best for his young sibling and party. There is a genuine dilemma as to what the best thing for him to do is.

UPDATE 1115am

That was perhaps the first time the Labour Party has really seen the fire in David Miliband’s political belly. His past conference speeches always got mixed, lack lustre receptions. This was different. To some extent that was inevitable sentimentalism for the popular loser. But there also seemed more to it than that. Just as Ed Miliband declared New Labour over, David Miliband declared the soap opera over and concentrated on telling the party some hard truths about foreign policy and British politics. And it means Ed Miliband has a very tall order tomorrow, not just matching his brother’s authority but in trumping his vision. This wasn’t the plan. Just yesterday one of David Miliband’s closest supporters, who had just spoken to him on the phone, told me he would not make a speech to Labour conference, but simply do the question and answer session this morning. So clearly David Miliband arrived back at conference determined to make his mark on the week and the party. We still don’t know whether that was his swan song. But if his intention was to go out on a high that will have done the job. I expect the same commentators who always derided the older brother for being awkward and unable to communicate to now say what a loss he is!