3 Sep 2014

US still unsure how to deal with IS

Scan the statements and pronouncements from American politicians of all stripes today, and you’ll see how the murder of Steven J Sotloff has spurred the political world here into rhetoric, if not action.


From Vice President, Joe Biden:
“When people harm Americans, we don’t retreat. We don’t forget. We take care of those who are grieving and when that’s finished, they should know, we will follow them to the gates of hell until they are brought to justice.  Because hell is where they will reside.”

From Senator Saxby Chambliss (Republican, Georgia):
“The west cannot continue to stand by while this group continues to kill innocent persons as it has already done with the appalling murders of James Foley and Steven Sotloff. The time to stop and destroy ISIL is now.”

From Senator Chris Van Hollen (Democrat, Maryland):
“The Turks who have been letting ISIS cross their border with impunity for a long time, and the Saudis who’ve been looking the other way while many people have been financing ISIS from Saudi territory as well as other gulf states, they need to get into this fight.”

From Congressman Paul Ryan (Republican, Wisconsin):
“If we don’t stand up to this kind of violent jihadism forcefully as the superpower of the world, and finish this problem, then what does that say to tomorrow’s jihadists?  On behalf of civilisation, we have to deal with this threat comprehensively, and swiftly, now, and that is what I want to see from our commander in chief.”

Not sure how this parlays into policy, but the hyperbole is at least indicative of the horror with which the American public have reacted to the double shock of the murders of both James Foley, and Steven Sotloff.

Options

The options for President Obama seem much the same as they were last week. Extend air strikes beyond Iraq to IS targets in Syria? (most likely only effective with local intelligence, which can’t be guaranteed without American boots on the ground, which remains a red line).

Do what you can to underpin and strengthen the new leadership in Baghdad, and make sure the sources of Sunni grievances are shut down?

Persuade, cajole and pester regional allies (and old foes, like Iran) to do more in the fight against the Islamic State, to choke off funding, logistical and moral support?

Pull together an international alliance (including most likely Britain and Australia) to play a shared role in any military alliance?

Restrict the movement of foreign fighters (the US will attempt a resolution in the UN Security council, which it chairs this month)?

Obama’s response

The President spoke with greater clarity in Estonia this morning than he managed on Thursday in Washington.

From President, Barack Obama:
“Our objective is to make sure that ISIL is not an ongoing threat to the region. And we can accomplish that. It’s going to take some time, and it’s going to take some effort.”

That much seems clear.  What comes next, less so.

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