August weather – any signs of sunshine and warmth?

Summer so far

It’ll come as no surprise to you that summer so far has been cooler than average. It’s been the coolest first half of summer since 2012 and the 17th coolest start to summer since 1960, according to data released by the Met Office.

Whilst the first half of summer has been slightly drier than average, thanks to a relatively dry June, many southern and eastern parts of the UK already had all their July rainfall in the first 14 days of the month.

The last very wet first half of summer we had was back in 2012, when the UK had 223.3mm rain – almost double the 113.8mm we’ve seen this year.

One month of summer left

With one month of meteorological summer left to go, some will be hoping for August to offer something warmer, drier and sunnier than what we’ve had so far.

So, just how reliable is summer weather in August? Looking back at the past 20 Augusts, there’s a roughly 50-50 split between wetter versus drier than average, and warmer versus cooler than average.

What’s the outlook for August?

Predicting the weather far ahead in summer is tricky, as generally, weather patterns are weaker and tend to move more slowly.

Despite that, there have been signs of the jet stream moving further northwards for longer periods as we end July and head into August.

This would more often steer the wetter, cooler and unsettled weather towards Scotland and sometimes Northern Ireland, with ridges of high pressure bringing more reliable spells of warmth and sunshine across England and Wales.

So, whilst there are no signs of a heatwave or big areas of high pressure covering the whole of the UK, there is the scope for weather more akin to summer.

Why we need to keep an eye on hurricanes

Atlantic hurricane activity typically starts to increase through August. This is important, as it can bring even more uncertainty to our weather forecast.

Powerful hurricanes can significantly influence the position of the jet stream, which in turn can affect our weather down the line – and not necessarily lead to a weather pattern that means settled weather either.

However, any such influence may not start to become apparent more than a week in advance, so we will have to wait and see on that front.

UK seeing more hot and very wet days

Before I go, a quick word about the Met Office’s ‘State of the UK Climate 2023’ report which was released today. There are no surprises in that it shows the UK is experiencing more hot and very wet days because of human-induced climate change.

This follows the recent announcement by Copernicus, Europe’s climate agency, that Earth has had its warmest day on record this week. The global temperature reached 17.15C on Monday, surpassing the 17.09C recorded on Sunday, and the previous record of 17.08C set in July last year.