From Cuba to the UK in a week – journey of a weather system

At the moment, all eyes are on the Gulf of Mexico, where a cluster of thunderstorms is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The cluster of thunderstorms signifies a weak area of low pressure over open waters that is slow-moving, yet has a medium chance of becoming the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Despite only marginally favourable conditions being present to keep this cluster of thunderstorms active, the chance of it becoming a tropical or sub-tropical storm is there, as it drifts gradually northwards towards southern Florida in the next few days.

Even if it doesn’t become a tropical storm, it is going to give some torrential rain across central and western Cuba, along with southern Florida towards the end of the week.

In fact, there could be as much as 150-200mm falling locally in these areas in just 72 hours, bringing a risk of flash flooding.

The next point of interest is where this area of weather goes next. Most of the weather computer models develop it into a low pressure system that will run along the east coast of the US with brisk winds and drenching rains this weekend.

Of greater interest to us, is where it heads next week. While subject to a lot of change given how far away this is, the latest forecast track takes the area of low pressure across the Atlantic ocean early next week.

It gets caught up in the jet stream to the east of Newfoundland on Sunday 9 June and catapulted across the Atlantic, arriving in western parts of the UK on Thursday 13 June.

In the meantime, high pressure is going to remain in charge of our weather. This means that there’ll be a good deal of warmth and sunshine, with temperatures reaching the mid-20s

Whilst for most of us it will stay largely dry, for an unlucky few, there’ll be some thundery downpours.

Don’t forget, you can get the latest forecast on the Channel 4 Weather website or follow my updates on Twitter – @liamdutton