Daily Mirror says a heatwave is coming. I say check your facts!

As I sat down to eat breakfast this morning, I opened Twitter on my phone and noticed a number of people asking me if it was true that a heatwave was coming later this month.

I won’t type what I actually muttered, but let’s just say that I knew the origin of such information would be yet another poorly written, badly researched newspaper article.

Sure enough, after putting heatwave into Google, my suspicion was confirmed. However, this time, it wasn’t the Daily Express providing the latest meteorological fantasy, but the Daily Mirror. 

The headline on today’s front page reads; “After a washout winter.. 82F heatwave.. and it will last 2 weeks”. I should add that it was in bold, upper case letters, just in case we weren’t capable of digesting it otherwise.

Already slightly irritated, I next wondered who the quoted source in the article would be. It normally boils down to one of two people – both of whom are often quoted as ‘experts’.

This time, the person quoted was James Madden, referred to as Exacta Weather expert, who said the following:

“It’s going to get particularly warm from the middle of the month. The temperature could climb into the mid and high 20s in southern England and it will be above average for the rest of the country.

Within the next 10 days we should begin to see lots of sunshine and pleasant weather and that is set to continue until the start of June.

This is going to be the first big heatwave of the year. Temperatures could get up to 28C (82.4F) which will give the second half of May a Mediterranean feel.

It’s being caused by a build up of high pressure from Spain and should stick around for at least two weeks.

Overall, the long-range summer forecast looks mixed. It’s not going to be a wash-out but it wont be as good as last year.”

Who is James Madden?

James Madden runs a website called Exacta Weather that claims to provide long-range weather forecasts, although with a variable level of accuracy.

You may recall last autumn that I took issue with an article in the Daily Express, that claimed the winter just gone would see the UK experience 100 days of heavy snow. As you know, all most of us had was copious amounts of rain.

And the source of that Daily Express headline? Yes, you guessed it, James Madden.

In the article, he said: “An exceptionally prolonged period of widespread cold is highly likely to develop throughout this winter and last into next spring.

It will be accompanied by snow drifts of several feet and long-lasting snow accumulations on a widespread scale.

This period of snow and cold is likely to result in an incomparable scenario to anything we have experienced in modern times.”

So, as you can see, it was a bold claim that couldn’t be further from the reality of the heavy rain, flooding and above average temperatures that we saw.

How does he make his predictions?

In the about us section of the Exacta Weather website, it has the following information about how his forecasts are made-

‘No meteorological or climate models have been used in the production of the following long-range weather forecasts. All forecasts are produced on a number of personal observations and calculations, that also include; solar activity, ocean behaviour, and historical weather patterns from my own unique collective data. This method of forecasting allows me to make a long term judgement on the factors that I consider to be the most important, and what I also consider to be the most reliable in the future for long term weather forecasting.’

James Madden says that his forecasts attract national and international recognition in the media and that he successfully predicted the coldest December in 100 years.

Prior to supercomputers, English mathematician, Lewis Fry Richardson, estimated in 1922 that it would take 64,000 people to perform the calculations by hand needed to make a forecast in time for it to be useful.

So, will there be a heatwave?

The simple answer is that there could be, but even the most experienced, credible weather forecasting companies will say that it is just too soon to tell with any level of confidence.

All the weather computer models suggest that the first half of May will be changeable, with rain at times and temperatures generally close to average.

From mid-month onwards, there are signs that high pressure may build, but different weather computer models are saying different things, so anything could happen.

It’s a real shame that some newspapers choose to print these weather stories without checking the quality of the source that they are using.

There are plenty of us weather folk out here that would be more than happy to provide credible, engaging weather content for you. All you have to do is ask!

Don’t forget, you can get the latest forecast on the Channel 4 Weather website. I also post regular updates on Twitter – @liamdutton