England and Wales set for a soaking

Autumn is a time of year when unsettled weather is to be expected as the temperature contrast at mid-latitudes increases and the jet stream moves quickly, throwing wind and rain towards us on a regular basis.

In normal years, the prospect of heavy rain in October would be no big deal. However, this year has been far from normal. We’ve gone from drought to flood in a matter of months.

April and June were the wettest respective months on record and summer was the wettest in 100 years, as well as being the second wettest on record.

This has left us overwhelmed with the presence of water after a long time with it being in short supply in some areas. This fact is key to why heavy rain this coming autumn may prove problematic.

With the ground in some places now saturated, there is little capability for it to absorb any more water.

The most recent Environment Agency water resource report shows that the Midlands, south west England, Wales and northern England fall into this category, which means their sensitivity to further heavy rainfall is higher than usual.

As the soil has little capacity left to soak up more water, the water tends to run off over the land and into the rivers more quickly.

This can lead to river levels rising rapidly in a short space of time, with the risk of flooding if the heavy rain persists – something that happened last week when northern England was hit particularly badly.

Heavy rain expected

The next few days are looking very unsettled across the UK – especially for England and Wales, where a waving weather front will continue to ripple northwards, taking bouts of heavy rain to similar areas.

Weather computer models are suggesting that southern parts of England and Wales will see the greatest amount of rain in the coming few days, where 20-30mm, locally 50mm could fall.

A yellow warning has been issued by the Met Office, with the Environment Agency suggesting a low risk of flooding across Wales and south west England in the next 48 hours.

Scotland and Northern Ireland will see some rain in the next few days, but not as much as further south.

Don’t forget you can get the latest forecast on the Channel 4 Weather website or you can follow me for regular updates on Twitter – @liamdutton