Fine autumn weekend ahead for most

After an unsettled start to September, the weather has settled down over the past week, with most places seeing some warmth and sunshine.

September is renowned for being a variable month as the transition from summer to autumn takes place, with a cooling northern hemisphere pushing the jet stream gradually southwards.

What you’ve probably noticed about the weather over the past week is that it hasn’t really changed much. Cloud amounts have varied a little from day to day, but the generally dry and fine theme has persisted.

The reason for this is that the jet stream has substantially weakened and split in two to the west of the UK – something referred to in the meteorological world as bifurcation.

One branch of the jet stream has headed northwards between Scotland and Iceland, with the other branch diving southwards to the west of the Azores.

As a result of this absence of notable wind in the upper part of the atmosphere, there’s nothing to lead to significant movement or development of weather systems.

Therefore, this weekend is looking promising for most of us, before the southern branch of the split jet stream picks up early next week, driving low pressure in from the west.

This weekend

For most of us this weekend, the weather is looking fine and dry with plenty of sunshine, although there may be some patchy mist, fog and low cloud during the mornings.

The only exceptions to this will be the far north of Scotland, where there’ll be rain on Saturday, as well as the far south of England and Wales, where on Saturday and Sunday there could be a few heavy showers.

Temperatures will reach 16-21C, although the east coast of Scotland and England will be a little cooler – especially on Sunday – due to a noticeable easterly breeze.

Next week

Early next week, low pressure will develop to the west of Ireland and slowly drift eastwards across us.

This means that by midweek, most of the UK will be cloudy with some rain. However, due to a southerly wind, despite any rain, it’ll be warm with temperatures around 15-20C.

In fact, if the rain is a little slower to progress eastwards and the sun breaks through, temperatures could reach 20-23C across eastern parts of England.

Don’t forget, you can get the latest forecast on the Channel 4 Weather website. You can also follow my updates on Twitter – @liamdutton