Friday’s disruptive snow: update

Yesterday, I wrote a blog that talked about the heavy snow that is expected to affect much of the UK during Friday.

Whilst the weather computer models were being more consistent in what they were showing, I did emphasise that there was still some uncertainty, with fine tuning taking place in the lead up to Friday.

Although there is still some uncertainty, there is growing confidence in how much snow is likely to fall and the places that will see the greatest amounts.

The slight difference from yesterday is that the weather front bringing the snow on Friday pivots and now has a different orientation. Rather than stretching north to south, it will stretch north west to south east.

Met Office warnings issued on Thursday – click on image for more detail

As a result, Scotland and northern England are likely to see less snow on Friday than was thought yesterday, with generally no more than 2-5cm.

However, there are other parts of the UK where the opposite is true. Yesterday the signal was for Northern Ireland to see rain on Friday, but now snow is expected, with 5-10cm at low levels and as much as 15-20cm across the hills and mountains.

Hardest hit tomorrow will be the hills and mountains of south east Wales, where the Met Office has issued their highest tier red warning. Here, 20-30cm of snow is expected during Friday, which when combined with strong winds, will give blizzards conditions and drifting snow.

The rest of Wales, the Midlands, southern England (including west London), Devon, Somerset and Cheshire (brushing Manchester and Liverpool) are likely to see 5-10cm, with 15cm or more falling over hills and mountains.

Given the amounts of snow that are expected, there is a significant risk of travel disruption throughout Friday. Also, given that the snow is likely to be wet and slushy, there could be loss of electricity in the worst affect areas as power lines become overwhelmed with ice.

The heavy snow will generally tend to ease later tomorrow, but it is likely to linger into Saturday – especially across Scotland and eastern parts of England.

Your weather reports, pictures and videos of the snow will be much appreciated during the next few days. The easiest way to get them to me is on Twitter – @liamdutton

Graphic source: Met Office