Heavy rain and flood risk return to England and Wales

Another spell of wet weather

Last weekend and into the early part of this week has been tremendously wet across England and Wales. Numerous places have had more than a month’s worth of rain in less than 12 hours, with localised flooding and travel disruption.

Woburn in Bedfordshire had 147.4mm of rain in just three days – 267% of its September average of 55.4mm. The same location also had its wettest day on record, with 90.4mm of rain.

Thankfully, Tuesday was a drier day for many. However, it will be short-lived, with the next band of rain already sweeping in on Wednesday and poised to linger across some parts of England and Wales until Friday.

Parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland will see the rain temporarily but, generally, the picture here is for sunshine and showers.

Weather warnings issued

With the focus of the rain expected to be across England and Wales, the Met Office has already issued two yellow warnings that cover Thursday and Friday.

One warning covers northern England mainly from the Pennines eastwards on Thursday.

Another warning covers East Anglia, the Midlands, mid and south Wales, along with southern England later Thursday into Friday morning.

In these areas, there is the risk of localised flooding and travel disruption. However, there is still some uncertainty about exactly where the heaviest rain will be, so the warnings are likely to be updated.

What’s causing the rain?

The next batch of rain will be caused by an area of low pressure sweeping in off the Atlantic Ocean on a more southerly track than is typically seen in autumn.

This is because the jet stream, which normally sits to the northwest of the UK in autumn, is sitting unusually far south – steering the area of low pressure over England and Wales, rather than Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The additional hazard for England and Wales is that the ground is already very wet following the recent rain. Therefore, whilst the forthcoming rain won’t generally amount to as much as a few days ago, wet ground is more susceptible to flooding.

Cold air follows

Once the rain pulls away from England and Wales on Friday, a northerly wind will push Arctic air southwards across the whole of the UK.

This will cause daytime temperatures to fall below average for the time of year – just 10-16C north to south. The nights will be chilly too, with a touch of frost possible in rural areas.

The chilly feel is set to persist through the weekend, although aside from some showers – mainly in the north – many places will become drier again.

Soon-to-be Hurricane Helene

Thousands of miles away across the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Helene has formed in the Gulf of Mexico.

It’s expected to become a hurricane in the coming hours, before heading towards the Florida panhandle, likely making landfall as a major category three storm on late on Thursday (local time).

The usual array of hazards will be associated with the storm – heavy rain, damaging winds, flooding and a storm surge.

Once it makes landfall, it will swiftly weaken and head inland, taking heavy rain and strong winds with it.

Sometimes, the remnants of hurricanes can reach the UK, but there are currently no signs of this happening in this instance. Just as well, given how much rain we’ve had lately.