Heavy rain to bring flood risk
After high pressure bringing some sunshine and warmth last week, normal service has resumed, with low pressure driving our weather for the next few days.
The jet stream has not only picked up speed, but it is also south of the UK at the moment – a prime position to develop areas of low pressure and catapult them our way.
Yesterday, there were a few tornadoes spotted in the UK in Northamptonshire and Lincolnshire, with minor damage to trees, cars and property.
The tornadoes were caused by severe thunderstorms that had enough spin to start the air rotating tightly around a central point.
Staying wet and windy
The next batch of wet and windy weather will arrive through Wednesday, as an area of low pressure develops south of the UK and slowly drifts northwards.
Whilst there will be strong and gusty winds, the main concern will be torrential rain, due to the low pressure having remnants of Tropical Storm Henri wrapped up within it.
This means that the area of low pressure will contain more moisture than normal, which translates to the likelihood of more intense rain.
The Met Office has issued a yellow “be aware” warning for much of England and Wales for Wednesday and Thursday.
Most places will see 15-30mm of rain, with a few places seeing as much as 40-70mm.
Scotland and Northern Ireland will escape most of the rain, with generally fine and dry weather.
Flood risk
Given that it has been wet recently, with more torrential rain expected, there is a concern that there could be some localised flooding.
There will be two aspects of the rain that will bring a flooding potential – the persistence and the intensity.
Within and around the main band of rain will be some thunderstorms, which will enhance the flood risk to the places that see them.
It may be the case that there is some temporary transport disruption, due to standing water gathering in prone places.
Any signs of settled weather?
Some of the weather computer models are hinting that high pressure will build this weekend and persist into next week.
This would mean that the weather turns drier with some sunshine. However, with clear skies at night, mist and fog could become an issue in places.
On another note, you may have seen an article predicting that this winter will be the coldest in 50 years in the UK.
In a nutshell, it is impossible to know with any useful confidence what the weather will do for a whole season so far ahead.
Don’t forget, you can get the latest forecast on the Channel 4 Weather website. I also post regular updates on Twitter – @liamdutton