Hurricane Ernesto – here’s how it could affect the UK’s weather next week

Hurricane Ernesto

Hurricane Ernesto is currently drifting northwards over the western Atlantic Ocean, having started off as a tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean late last week.

It brought heavy rain, brisk winds, flooding and a storm surge to the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico – leaving half of the latter’s homes and businesses without power.

This is just the beginning of a long journey for Hurricane Ernesto which, for a time, could become a major category 3 hurricane, before weakening slightly as it passes very close to Bermuda on Saturday.

Hurricane warnings have already been issued for the island by the National Hurricane Center, with up to 12 inches of rain, hurricane-force winds, flooding, a storm surge, and dangerous waves expected.

But it’s what happens beyond this that has the potential to affect the UK’s weather later next week.

How could it affect the UK?

After passing close to Bermuda, Hurricane Ernesto will then head towards Nova Scotia, Canada, which is when it will start to have an affect on the jet stream.

As warm air is pushed ahead of Ernesto, the jet stream will pick up speed, as well as buckle as the storm bumps into it.

The remnants of Ernesto are then likely to get caught in the jet stream and be recycled to create the sort of low-pressure system that we typically see at our latitude, before being catapulted eastwards across the Atlantic Ocean.

Big uncertainties about the detail

The big uncertainties are how powerful this area of low pressure will be, and where, in relation to the UK, it ends up later next week.

Currently, it looks most likely that the centre of it will move somewhere between the UK and Iceland, with a spell of wet and unseasonably windy weather on the cards.

Another scenario, albeit currently much less likely, is that the area of low pressure tracks so far north, that a ridge of high pressure builds in across the UK, giving a brief spell of very warm weather.

This is what happened early last week when the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby affected the jet stream. Although in that instance, it was an indirect influence, as the remnants of that storm didn’t make it to our shores.

What about the rest of August?

For the rest of August, the most likely outcome is for the changeable weather to continue. Whilst there will be showers or longer spells of rain at times, there’ll be some drier, brighter and warmer days in between.

However, as Atlantic hurricane activity is expected to increase towards the climatological peak of the season, there will undoubtedly be more storms that will have the potential to affect our weather down the line.

In the meantime, all eyes will be on what happens later next week, which of course is just before a bank holiday weekend. You can follow me for updates on X, formerly Twitter, here, and on Facebook here.