Mild weather continues, but for how long?

The start of 2012 has been remarkably mild across the UK, with temperatures well above where they should be at this time of year. Even night time temperatures, at times, have been close to average daytime maximum temperatures.

For the past week, the highest maximum temperature has been above 10C every day, with four of those days reaching 13C. The average at this time of year is in the range of 6 to 8C.

The reason for this mild weather is the direction from which the wind has predominantly been blowing – the south west.

This has brought a tropical maritime air mass from the Azores, bathing the UK in warm air.

It’s not just brought warmth, it’s also brought plenty of moisture which has meant spells of cloud and rain, accompanied by very strong winds – thanks to an active jet stream.

There are signs, however, that there may be a trend to somewhat colder weather for the second half of this month.

The weather computer models have been hinting at this in recent days, although there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty as to how and when any change to notably colder weather will occur.

The latest forecast suggests that it’ll turn colder at the end of this week with frost and fog making a return by night. Although at this stage the level of cold isn’t anything remarkable and probably won’t last more than a few days.

The main period of interest is in seven to ten days ahead, when the weather computer models are hinting at something notably colder. The difficulty, however, is that confidence so far ahead is very low.

What do I think? Well I think that the second half of this month won’t be as mild as the first half. As for exactly when any notably colder weather will arrive, I’m still not sure.

What I will do is keep you updated on developments as and when the picture becomes a bit clearer.

I’ve been discussing the potential for cold weather with my fellow meteorologists on Twitter for the past few days. If you’d like to observe or even be part of the discussion, then you can join me – @liamdutton