Remnants of Hurricane Kirk unlikely to hit UK
Hurricane Kirk
After somewhat of a lull, hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean has sprung to life during the past few weeks. The most recent storm to hit the headlines was Hurricane Helene, which brought major damage and a significant loss of life across the southeastern US.
Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce followed, although they formed and dissipated over the ocean, not affecting land. These storms are known as ‘fish storms’ because they bother the fish and not much else.
The most recent hurricane is Kirk, which has again stayed over the Atlantic Ocean, peaking with sustained winds of 145mph. This puts it at major category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
What is of interest for northwest Europe, is where the remnants of the hurricane are heading in the coming days.
Where will Kirk’s remnants go?
At the end of last week, there were numerous tracks being suggested by the various weather models that predict our weather.
One weather model, the GFS, was insistent on taking the remnants of Kirk over the UK. However, others, the ECMWF and UK Met Office, were keen on a more southerly track across northern Iberia and France.
In these sorts of situations, where different weather models are predicting different outcomes, trends become important. Sure enough, over the weekend, weather models started to agree on the more southerly track – keeping the ex-hurricane away from the UK.
What does this mean for the UK?
As a result of the highly likely southerly track mentioned above, direct impacts on the UK from the remnants of Hurricane Kirk look unlikely.
Currently, there is a mere 10% chance that some of the heavy rain associated with it could graze the far southeast of England – but even this outcome is looking less and less likely with each new run of data that becomes available.
However, for northern Iberia and France, some very wet and windy weather is expected through Wednesday and into Thursday. Some damage, disruption and flooding are likely, with an array of yellow and amber weather warnings issued by the French, Spanish and Portuguese weather services.
Beware of sensational tabloid headlines
In recent days, despite there being a clear trend for the remnants of Hurricane Kirk to avoid directly hitting the UK, some tabloid headlines have still been suggesting otherwise.
This is especially irresponsible, given that at times of potentially damaging and disruptive weather, any information communicated should be clear, concise and accurate – not misleading or cause confusion.
Florida braced for Hurricane Milton
Across the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Milton has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. It has undergone rapid intensification during the last 24 hours, becoming a major category 4 hurricane.
The latest prediction from the National Hurricane Center takes Milton eastwards, reaching the west coast of Florida on Wednesday (local US time).
Such a powerful storm is likely to cause damaging wind, flooding rain and a coastal storm surge across the state.
Beyond that, the storm is predicted to emerge as a post-tropical storm over the western Atlantic Ocean on Friday.
Exactly where is goes afterwards is still uncertain, but it’s not impossible that the remnants could get caught up in the jet stream and eventually end up close to our shores at some point. It’s certainly one to watch!