Snow risk increases this weekend
The cold air has arrived and it’s here to stay for now, with the latest weather computer models suggesting that it will be with us until the middle of next week.
While the outlook remains cold, there will be subtle fluctuations in temperature that will have a huge influence on whether rain, sleet or snow falls from the sky.
As I mentioned in my blog earlier this week, eastern parts of the UK will see the coldest weather, with western areas often a little less cold, as milder air tries to move in off the Atlantic.
Daytime temperatures into the first part of next week will generally be around 0C to 3C for much of the UK, but Northern Ireland, south west England, along with the far west of Scotland and Wales will be a little less cold at 3C to 6C.
The universal feature into next week will be night time temperatures falling below freezing, with widespread frosts and a significant risk of ice – especially in areas that have lying snow.
This brings me on to the topic of snow. As you will have gathered from my previous blogs and tweets, snow will be the hardest element to forecast during the next five days.
With temperatures expected to be within the range of 0C to 2C, there will be many other factors that come into consideration when predicting which places are most likely to have significant snow.
I think that the greatest risk during the next five days will be across Scotland and north east Wales, along with central, eastern and northern parts of England.
Northern Ireland, south west Wales and south west England will tend to see more of a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow, with temperatures here always tending to be a little higher.
Saturday
The greatest chance of snow on Saturday will be across the hills and mountains of eastern Scotland and north east England, where 2-5cm could fall by the end of the day. However, the snow will fall in the form of showers, which means amounts will be highly variable.
Across southern parts of England and Wales, there’ll be a band of rain turning to sleet and snow in places during the day as colder air starts to mix with it.
There could be a covering over hills and mountains above 200 metres, but at lower levels, it’s unlikely to settle.
Sunday
On Sunday, snow showers are likely to affect north east England and the east Midlands, with showers most frequent east of the A1 road. There could be a few centimetres at lower levels, with as much as 5-10cm above 200 metres for places like the North York Moors.
There’ll also be a band of rain moving into the north west of the UK, turning to snow across Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland.
Monday
Given the latest available information, Monday looks to be the day when snow could be most widespread and affect the greatest number of people.
An area of low pressure will slide south eastwards across the UK during the day, bumping into the cold air and giving a spell of sleet and snow.
At the moment, the greatest risk of snow looks to be across Scotland, north east Wales, along with central, northern and eastern parts of England.
Northern Ireland, south west Wales and south west England are more likely to see rain or sleet, given that these areas will be a little less cold.
However, it is really worth emphasising is that there is still a lot of uncertainty about the forecast on Monday, and there only needs to be subtle changes in detail to give a big change in the outcome.
As ever, you can get the latest five day forecast on the Channel 4 Weather website and I’ll also be giving regular updates on Twitter – @liamdutton