Spring warmth could bring 21C this weekend
Following a long winter that never seemed to want to end, finally, this weekend will see a change in our weather fortunes.
We will lose the all too familiar chilly east to north easterly wind and replace it with a warmer south to south westerly wind instead.
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In my blog a week ago, I suggested that we were on course for some spring warmth mid-month, around 14 April, and this still looks to be on the cards.
Such a marked burst of warmth after a prolonged cold spell will probably catapult nature into life. After the pleasant sunshine at the weekend, I noticed small buds starting to appear on trees – waiting for better weather to spur them on.
Jet stream moving north
The jet stream being unusually far south in March meant that the typical milder and wetter weather that we get in spring was steered across southern parts of Europe instead.
As result, much of Iberia, Italy, the Balkans and Ukraine had two to four times their average March rainfall – shown in the graphic below from NOAA.
Meanwhile, northern Europe was much drier than normal for March, due to the area of high pressure that brought us the bitter easterly wind and very cold air.
Having spent much of March unusually far south across Iberia, the Mediterranean and north Africa, the jet stream will finally head northwards – closer to where it should be at this time of year.
This will bring more typical spring weather towards the UK, with higher temperatures and rain or showers, interspersed with sunnier spells.
How warm will it get?
I think the main point to emphasise is that from this weekend onwards, temperatures will be back to where they should be for this time of year.
Scotland and Northern Ireland will see 7-12C, with England and Wales sitting at around 10-15C.
However, within this week long spell of average temperatures, there will be bursts of greater warmth – the first of which will arrive this weekend.
On Sunday, Scotland and Northern Ireland will reach 10-15C, with England and Wales around 16-21C.
The area of greatest warmth on Sunday will be in a line from London, through the east Midlands and into Yorkshire, where 18-21C is quite likely, with a small chance of 22 or 23C.
The caveats
As ever, there will be caveats to the rising temperatures during the next week. The air won’t just be warmer, it will also be moister, which means that there will be cloud and rain at times.
Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and north west England will be most prone to thicker cloud, rain and brisk winds, with sunshine here more limited.
Southern and eastern parts of England will be favoured for sunshine, but even here there will be spells of more cloud with some rain.
Also, with sea temperatures around the UK still quite low following the recent cold spell, coastal areas with an onshore wind are likely to be cooler with more cloud.
Nevertheless, following the perpetual cold we’ve experienced this winter, even warm rain will be more welcome than cold, icy sleet.
Don’t forget, you can get the latest forecast on the Channel 4 Weather website or follow my regular updates on Twitter – @liamdutton