Stormy weather possible for parts of the UK this weekend
October so far
The weather so far this October has been very mixed across the UK.
The wettest weather, relative to average, up to this point in the month has been across England and Wales.
Temperatures have been unremarkable overall. However, there was a brief chillier spell, when daytime temperatures were well below average, with a few frosty nights.
As we begin the second half of the month, there’s going to be a marked change in our weather in the coming days, with an increased focus on strong winds, as well as further rain.
Stormy this weekend
Whilst there’ll be some wet and windy weather during Friday, it’s later this weekend that is looking especially unsettled.
During Sunday into Monday, a deep area of low pressure looks likely to pass very close to the northwest of the UK, with the potential for damaging and disruptive gusts of wind.
The challenge at the moment lies in the detail – in terms of its intensity and how close it gets. If the low pressure is more intense and passes closer, then the winds experienced will be stronger. If it is less intense and passes further away, then the winds won’t be as strong.
Currently, different weather models are suggesting slightly different outcomes, with the forecast unlikely to become clearer for another day or so.
Weather warnings issued
The Met Office has already issued a yellow warning for wind for Sunday into Monday, which covers much of Scotland and Northern Ireland, along with northwestern parts of England and Wales.
Gusts of wind could reach 60-70mph, locally more, for exposed coasts and hills. Even away from the northwest of the UK, it’ll be noticeably windy too.
The reason for the warning being so large, is due to the uncertainties I mentioned a little earlier.
As the detail starts to become clearer in the coming days, the warning is likely to change in its areal coverage. If the expected impacts become significant enough, potentially, there could be the addition of an amber warning.
Either way, there is the possibility of travel disruption, damage to trees and temporary structures, along with coastal flooding – as strong winds combine with high tides.
Storm Ashley?
September marked the start of the 2024/25 storm season, so should the weather be deemed significant enough to generate medium impacts and is named, it will be the first storm of the season. The first name on the list this year is Ashley, followed by Bert and Conall.
The last named storm was Lilian, which hit the UK on 23rd August this year with strong winds and heavy rain. It led to travel disruption, power cuts and stage closures at Leeds Festival, and was the most significant August windstorm since Ellen and Francis in late August 2020.
Powerful jet stream
The cause of the windier and wetter weather as we head into the weekend is a powerful jet stream over the Atlantic Ocean.
Not only will it pick up speed, reaching around 200mph up at 30,000ft, but it will also be directed straight towards the UK.
The jet stream acts as an atmospheric superhighway, which develops deep areas of low pressure and then catapults them towards us.
Whilst this is nothing unusual for October, it reminds us that we are at a time of the year when the weather can start to become more impactful. As ever, I’ll keep you updated on developments in the coming days.