UK rain and flood warnings – what next?
A very wet weekend for some
There’s been a stark contrast in the UK’s weather through the weekend. Much of Scotland and Northern Ireland have been dry and settled with some sunshine. However, across England and Wales – especially further southwards – it has been very wet.
Some places have had more than a month’s worth of rain in 24 hours, which has caused localised flooding and travel disruption.
On Sunday, the wettest place was Woburn in Bedfordshire, where 108.8mm of rain fell, which is almost double the September average of 55.4mm.
Latest weather warnings
As the heavy rain continues across England and Wales, it will come as no surprise that the Met Office has weather warnings in force for the rest of Monday.
An updated amber warning, valid until 9pm on Monday, stretches from the West Country to parts of the Midlands. This is where the greatest amounts of rain are expected today, possibly as much as 120mm in a few locations.
There is also a yellow warning, valid until 11.59pm on Monday, which covers much of England and the far east of Wales.
The main hazards on Monday are expected to be travel disruption and localised flooding, which have already hit some areas.
Why has it been so wet?
The cause of the ongoing very wet weather is a slow-moving area of low pressure that drifted in from the Bay of Biscay late last week.
Rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms have been rotating in around it from the nearby continent, enhanced by humid, moisture-laden air.
The other issue is that the same places have seen downpour after downpour, saturating the ground and reducing its capacity to soak up water. This leaves locations more flood-prone the longer that the rain persists.
Meanwhile, across Scotland and Northern Ireland, the mostly dry but cloudy weather continues.
Heavy rain and climate change
Whilst the primary cause of the heavy rain and flooding is the slow-moving area of low pressure, climate change is also likely to be having some impact.
As our atmosphere warms, its ability to hold more moisture rises, which in turn can increase the amount of rain that falls, as well as its intensity.
How long is it going to continue?
Tuesday for the rain-soaked areas of England and Wales will be much drier compared to preceding days, with no more than a few showers for western coasts.
However, low pressure will bring more widespread areas of rain and brisk winds during Wednesday and Thursday to England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
With the ground very wet, there could be some further localised flooding and travel disruption. Scotland is likely to be brighter with just a few showers.
The next big change comes on Friday, when cold, Arctic air spreads southwards across all parts of the UK – accompanied by a strong northerly wind. By this point, showers will mostly be confined to eastern, western and northern coastal areas, with drier weather elsewhere.
In the meantime, it’s worth keeping a close eye on the forecast, as the warnings could be updated further. I’ll be posting updates on Facebook, here, and X, formerly Twitter, here.