UK snow and ice warnings issued ahead of cold spell

First wintry spell of season

After nearly two weeks of cloud and anticyclonic gloom to start November, there’s a big change on the way. The first wintry spell of the season will arrive across northern parts of the UK this weekend, before reaching southern areas by Tuesday.

The source of the wintry weather is the Arctic, with northerly winds pushing the cold air further southwards each day. As the cold air becomes established, this is when the risk of snow is likely to increase for some areas.

Cold for all

The universal aspect of the forthcoming wintry spell is that everywhere will turn notably cold for November.

Daytime temperatures will typically reach only 3-7C by Wednesday, which is four to six degrees below average for the time of year. These temperatures are also lower than the average maximum temperatures for December, January and February.

Overnight temperatures are likely to fall close to or below freezing, which will bring the risk of ice – especially where rain, sleet or snow have fallen and then the moisture freezes under clear skies.

Snow for some

As is often the case with cold spells, the biggest fascination is with which locations will see snow. Snow is very tricky to predict far ahead in the UK for a variety of reasons. You can read more about those in a previous blog of mine here.

Suffice to say that whilst confidence is high that there will be snowfall next week, the exact details of when, where and how much are still proving to be a challenge – particularly for Monday into Tuesday.

This is because a spell of heavier rain is likely to traverse the UK, and on its northern edge there is likely to be some snow. The problem at the moment is that each of the weather models is saying slightly different things, keeping confidence low for now.

Beyond Tuesday, it looks like wintry showers are most likely to affect eastern, northern and western coastal counties of the UK. Inland, there is likely to be a lot of cold, crisp and dry weather.

Snow and ice warnings

The Met Office has already issued two weather warnings for snow and ice.

The first warning, for which there is high confidence, covers northern Scotland from Sunday afternoon until Monday morning. Settling snow will generally be confined to the hills and mountains, where 5-10cm is possible above 300 metres by Monday morning.

The second warning, for which there is low confidence, covers central and southern Scotland along with parts of northern England.

Settling snow is expected to largely be confined to the hills and mountains above 300 metres, where 5-10cm is possible, rising to as much as 15-20cm above 400 metres.

This means that any disruption is likely to generally be focused over higher levels, such as cross-Pennine routes.

How long will it last?

At the moment, it looks like the cold weather is going to persist for much of next week – especially across the northern half of the UK.

Some weather models are suggesting that later next week, milder air and rain may try and move in from the southwest. However, as these bump into the cold air, there is the possibility of further spells of sleet and snow – even in the south.

In the meantime, it’s worth keeping a close eye on the forecast, as weather warnings will continue to be updated during the cold spell, with more added as the week progresses.

I’ll be posting regular updates on X, formerly Twitter, here and on Facebook here.