A waving weather front, the nearby Indian summer and an Arctic blast

If there was an under cover camera in every weather forecaster’s office today, you’d probably see us meteorological folk scratching our heads with an expression of frustration etched on our faces.

The weekend is upon us – a time when everyone wants to know what the weather is doing, yet the weather isn’t playing ball. There’s quite a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for central and eastern parts of England due to a waving weather front.

What’s a waving weather front I hear you ask? Well, it’s not something that sits there and smugly waves at us weather forecasters, although it might as well be given the headache it is providing us with!

Waving weather front

A waving weather front is a weather front that sits in a zone of light winds that blow parallel to it, which results in it sitting in the same place for a prolonged period of time.

Whilst the waving weather front is stationary, pulses of activity can ripple along it – just like when you lay a skipping rope on a table and flick it at one end, which sends a kink along its length.

When flicking the rope at one end, you know there’ll definitely be a kink running along the rope, but hazarding a guess as to precisely where and when that kink will be is extremely tricky.

This is mirrored in the waving weather front. Whilst us forecasters know that there will be ripples running along it, giving thicker cloud and heavier rain, each update of the weather computer models is giving a slightly different position and timing for this taking place.

Nearby Indian summer

Even more frustrating for us this weekend is the fact that on the other side of this waving weather front, there is some warm air lurking over mainland Europe.

Temperatures from eastern France, through Germany and towards western Poland are going to be in the range of 18-23C this weekend with sunny spells – weather that definitely falls into the Indian summer category.

As for us, it’s a case of so near, yet so far. Whilst not as chilly as it has been, temperatures will tend to be on the wrong side of 20C with a general lack of sunshine.

Weekend weather prospects

If you’re in East Anglia and south east England, I think that there’ll generally be a lot of cloud with outbreaks of rain and drizzle at times. The best chance of any brightness will be the further west that you are.

For the rest of the UK, the forecast looks more straightforward, with plenty of dry weather. One thing that is worth highlighting is that there could be some dense fog at night which could well linger long in to the mornings locally.

So whilst there will be some sunshine it could take until early afternoon for it to break through in the areas that have dense fog to begin the day.

Next week

Whilst mild, with temperatures in the mid to high teens, it looks like much of next week will be quite cloudy with further rain and drizzle at times.

Mist and fog will continue to be an overnight and morning feature – something worth considering for the morning commute.

It’s still early days, but there are signs at the end of the week that we may get our first decent Arctic blast of the season bringing sunny, chilly days and frosty nights.

Don’t forget you can stay up to date with the latest forecast on the Channel 4 Weather website – worth doing if you’re in East Anglia and south east England given the uncertainty.

You can also follow my updates on Twitter – @liamdutton