Will the rest of July get any warmer?

Cool start to July

It’ll come as no surprise that the first half of July has been cooler than average for the UK, with mean maximum temperatures widely 2-3C below normal (left image below).

Not only has it been cool, but also duller than usual for many areas – especially towards the south and east. There, some places have only had around half the amount of sunshine they’d see on average at this point in the month.

From a rainfall perspective, fortunes have been more mixed. Whilst most areas have been wet, southern and eastern areas have already had more rainfall than they’d typically see in the whole of July (right image below). Loftus in North Yorkshire has had 235% of its rainfall for the whole of the month in the first 14 days.

Why has it been so cool?

The reason for a rather autumnal feel to our weather is the position and speed of the jet stream – the fast-moving ribbon of air at 30,000 feet in the sky that drives our weather at the surface.

It has generally been south of the UK, which has made us more prone to being affected by areas of low pressure and cooler air. Additionally, it has been moving unusually quickly for summer, which has caused the areas of rain and wind to be unseasonably vigorous.

Signs of jet stream moving north

For the weather to turn more settled and warmer, the jet stream needs to shift further northwards, and there are signs of this happening occasionally during the next two weeks.

This means that there are likely to be some relatively drier and warmer spells. However, these will probably be focused across England and Wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland may keep the cooler, wetter and windier theme more persistently.

It’s also worth adding that despite this being a current trend, the weather models have been a bit volatile this summer when looking further ahead, so there’s still scope for this to change.

Where is the summer warmth?

We’re not alone in experiencing a cool start to July, with many northern and western parts of Europe also having below average temperatures to start the month.

However, it has been a very different story across southern and eastern parts of the continent, where temperatures have been significantly above average. The Balkans is currently in the midst of a notable heatwave that has seen temperatures widely in the mid to high 30s, with some places reaching 40C.

Whilst I doubt most of us would want heat that intense, if we could pinch a few degrees, it might start to feel a bit more like summer in our neck of the woods.