Kenya and the tribal vote

Westerners who identify themselves as “leftwing” or “anti-imperialist” are clear: white journalists should not define Africans by tribe, because this shows colonial thinking. The problem is that many Africans I meet define themselves by tribe, and nowhere more so than Kenya.

The problem is acute when reporting the Kenyan elections. The presidential debates centred on important issues – land distribution, corruption, and the violence which marred the 2007 poll.

Yet Kenyans will vote according to tribe (and anyway the issues are tribal – the land question is about which tribe has “stolen” land from the other.)

Kikuyus will largely vote for the main Kikuyu candiate, Uhuru Kenyatta, and his Jubilee coalition. Kalenjins will also vote Jubilee, because their leader, William Ruto, is the vice-presidential candidate on that ticket. Luos and some other minority groups will vote for Raila Odinga, a Luo, and his Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD). I’m sorry, but that’s the way it is whether we like it or not.

I know several highly educated Kikuyus who will vote for Raila Odinga, because they prefer his style to Kenyatta, and believe he is a more honest man. They are regarded by the Kikuyu elite as traitors.

In the first round of the election, to be held on Monday, eight candidates are standing. If any one gets more than 50 per cent of the vote, he (or she – there is one woman) becomes president. Chances are that none will, so it’s likely to go to a second round scheduled for 10 April. The run-off is likely to pit Kenyatta aganst Odinga, so it’s important what the losing candidates advise their voters to do. Once again, we’re talking tribe. Musalia Mudavadi leads the Luhyia, who make up about 5 per cent of Kenyans, and are likely to be the swing voters.

This is how distorted democracy is in Kenya: both Kenyatta (Kikuyu) and Ruto (Kalenjin) have been indicted for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court for violence perpetrated after the last election.
In those days, Kalenjins and Kikuyus were on opposing sides so the violence these men allegedly orchestrated was against each other’s people. None of which seems to have affected their followers’ loyalty.

American and European governments, which provide aid to African countries, are clear that democracy is the answer to whatever it is they believe ails the continent. The USA in particular loves elections. Yet democracy in the style western countries practice it is rooted in the idea that political parties are divided by ideology or class interest not ethnicity.

I don’t have an answer to this problem – I lived in Kenya in the 1980s, when it was a repressive one-party state, and I wouldn’t advocate a return to that. But sometimes I wonder if the real imperialist thinking is in the mind of foreigners who demand western style elections in Kenya, rather than those who acknowledge the primacy of tribe.

Follow @lindseyhilsum on Twitter.