Will Kenyan elections spark violence?

The outside world seems to care about just one thing: are Kenyans going to kill each other like they did in 2007?

People I speak to in Kenya remain hopeful that violence will be contained, but that doesn’t mean all is well.

For a start, the man who will be president, Uhuru Kenyatta, and his deputy, William Ruto, are both due to appear before the International Criminal Court, charged with crimes against humanity connected to the 2007 violence.

And secondly, the process was so flawed many Kenyans suspect rigging.

Kenyatta won by the narrowest of margins – just 0.07 per cent over the 50 per cent he needed to avoid a run off.

All through the count, there was confusion about spoiled votes which proliferated.

After the new electronic systems were abandoned, because they weren’t working, and the election commission reverted to manual counting, the number of spoiled votes reduced.

An electronic error, they said, had multiplied the number of spoiled votes by a factor of eight. Now it had been corrected.

The number of spoiled votes was critical because it would decide whether Kenyatta achieved that 50 per cent needed to win outright.

No wonder Raila Odinga, Kenyatta’s main rival, will challenge the result in court. He says the process had no integrity. A factor of 8? Not 7? Or 10?

His supporters suspect rigging, which the new electronic system should have mitigated against. But even if the confusion was accidental not malign, it’s scarcely surprising that many Kenyans see the process as suspect.

In Kenya, journalists and politicians are being careful not to use inflammatory language. No one wants a rerun of 2007. But many of the Kenyans who voted in huge numbers last Monday may start to lose their faith in democracy.

They were told it would be different this time, that technology would ensure that the vote and the count were fair. Yet – just like last time – the victors say it was fair and the losers say it wasn’t. Their supporters concur. Kenyans cannot be sure that the government they get is really the one they chose.