The presidential race in the path of Hurricane Sandy

The phrase that both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama must be muttering to themselves, if they can remember it, is: “Events, dear boy, events”, Harold MacMillan’s famous quip about what he as prime minister feared most.

The event in question, that threatens to upset the best laid plans of both campaigns, is of course Hurricane Sandy.

As someone who lives in Washington and has already had one week without power this year – thanks to a vicious storm in June, I am extremely loath to put out the mattresses in the basement once again, prepare the torches, stock up on water, bread and long life milk, and prevail upon the giant trees that surround our house not to cleave us in half.

Here we go again! Washington may be the most powerful city on earth but its flimsy drooping overhead power-lines are easy prey to falling branches. A powerful gust will have us eating cold food by candlelight for a few days.

A Frankenstorm is almost certain to plunge our house into a Hallowe’en mood for a week. But what about the campaigns? The storm “event” will have some kind of impact but we won’t know what until it has hit.

The commander-in-chief gets another opportunity to look commanding, hauling bags of ice, directing relief efforts, hugging victims. On the other hand if Obama sets a foot wrong, describes the impact as not exactly “optimal”, as he called the deaths of American diplomats in Libya it could hurt him.

It adds an element of risk at a time when the smallest political gust can impact a race that’s as “tight as a bedbug’s a**”, to quote a friend. Mitt Romney, famously prone to Mittmouth, runs a similar but arguably lesser risk because he is not the man in charge. Both candidates have had to rearrange their schedules to get out of Sandy’s way.

Fewer appearances at campaign events in Virginia or Ohio could make a difference.

And then there’s turn-out, the crucial ground war in this race. If eastern Ohio or rural Virginia lose power and don’t get it back for a week, it could dent early voting, it could flummox the ability of Republicans to catch up on the actual election day.

Could, should, would. WHO KNOWS? We are as much in the dark on the polling consequences as we will be in the real dark in our house next week. I know that if Mitt Rommey was in charge of the weather he would bring the worst of it to Philadelphia and Northern Virginia to suppress turn out in the Democrats’ turf.

Barack Obama will want to bring blizzards and gales to rural southern Virginia and Western Pennsylvania. All we know at this stage is that weather is a lot more predictable than the election. Now let’s eat everything that’s left in the freezer.

Follow @mattfrei on Twitter.