Our whole relationship with Europe is now at stake

This story could be huge.  I hate journalistic hype and exaggeration but could the EU’s sudden demand for Britain to pay an extra £1.7bn be a possible turning point in our political history?  It may determine not just the next election, but our whole relationship with Europe.

What’s extraordinary is the suddenness of it all.  The story emerged last night, seemingly out of the blue, though it’s hard to believe that there aren’t civil servants in the Treasury who didn’t see this coming.  The Treasury team which looks after the UK’s budget contributions must surely have known every detail of the contribution rules.  Did they have no idea that we might suddenly be presented with a huge extra bill?

More important is that the bill has to be paid by 1 December – just five weeks away.  That’s about as long as most people have to pay their utility bills.  Normally in EU business there are many months to negotiate some kind of compromise or opt-out.  In this case there’s very little time.  Or legal leeway.  The rules on calculating budget contributions are very clear, we’re told.

And payment day comes just a week after the Rochester by-election, in which the Tories already seemed to be heading for a second defeat by Ukip (after Clacton).  Indeed, if someone in Brussels had deliberately set out to ensure a Ukip landslide in Rochester it’s hard to see how they could have done it better.

But this could prove a turning point in the Conservatives relations with the EU.  The bill may force David Cameron to come out fighting in a way he hadn’t previously intended.

What if Britain were to refuse to pay?  And then follow that up with the imposition of border controls on EU migrants, and then face whatever legal consequences followed.  If that were to lead to Britain’s ejection from the EU, David Cameron might well find he now has the British public on his side.

Indeed, if Britain were even to consider paying, David Cameron would probably find his leadership challenged.  The 46 letters required to be sent to the 1922 Chairman Graham Brady to trigger a  vote of confidence in the leader would easily be reached.

And the revolt would come not just from his backbenches but many government ministers. And the boost to Ukip could be huge.

This episode could be the making or breaking of David Cameron, his party, of Ukip, and of Britain’s future with the EU.

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