Is a Tory rebellion putting the brakes on HS2?
When the then Labour Transport Secretary Lord Adonis first announced plans for a new high speed railway from London to Birmingham he must have known how much aggravation the project would cause the Conservative party.
The route doesn’t just cut through official Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty, but also through some of the strongest and richest Tory territory in the kingdom. The Conservative associations of South Buckinghamshire boast thousands of members, and considerable income and wealth. Most of them have been proud members of the Premier League of Conservative associations, each giving at least £10,000 to the national party every year. 
And they send a pretty distinguished band of MPs to Westminster – the Attorney General Dominic Grieve (Beaconsfield); the Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan (Chesham and Amersham) and the Europe minister David Lidington (Aylesbury). Further north is the Speaker John Bercow in Buckingham, whilst in Ruislip, on the north west edge of London, is the up-and-coming Nick Hurd, designated as minister for the Big Society.
All have let it be known they are against HS2, though the ministers have to do so carefully, not being seen to oppose government policy outright.
Today, the new Transport Secretary Justine Greening announced she was delaying until January her decision on whether to go ahead with HS2. The few more weeks will give her extra time to consult over measures to respond to local anger. These include a tunnel just north-west of Amersham in place of a proposed rail cutting. Judging from local reaction so far this week, it won’t be enough to stem opposition from members of the Chesham and Amersham Conservative Association, which is among those Bucks parties to have withheld “Premier League” funds. Many activists have been their properties blighted by the prospect of HS2, and all the uncertainty it brings.
If in January, as expected, Justine Greening approves HS2 without modifications, the band of anti-HS2 ministers faces an agonising choice. The new railway will need approval through an act of parliament, and any minister is required to vote for it. Will Grieve, Gillan, Lidington and Hurd vote to keep their ministerial jobs, or to back their constituents? Will we get a spate of ministerial resignations?
At least the ministers have time. A couple of them have told me they don’t expect the crunch Commons vote until the latter part of 2013.
Follow Michael Crick on Twitter: @michaellcrick