Making sense of the fighting in Slaviansk

Overnight, the pro-Russian rebels in Slaviansk, Ukraine are reported to have quit the town, fighting their way out in one or more armoured convoys as the Ukrainian army attacked.

The battle opens up a new phase in the Ukraine crisis. Under pressure of “this time we mean it” sanctions prepared by the West, Vladimir Putin backed a plan by Ukraine’s new president, Petro Poroshenko, to change the constitution – allowing the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk a degree of autonomy.

But the ceasefire, which has held shakily for the past three weeks, has broken down.

When news reached Kiev of the fall of Sloviansk, Petroshenko ordered loyal troops to fly the flag over the town.

Meanwhile, pro-Russian TV networks, led by Russia Today, have reported as fact a totally unverified “leak” of a document purported to be from the US RAND Corporation, which appears to advocate internment camps and executions as part of a current crackdown on eastern Ukraine.

Initial reports state that the fleeing rebels have arrived in both Kramatorsk, just to the south, and in the city of Donetsk itself, which though rebel-held has not seen large scale military operations up to now.

For Vladimir Putin this is a symbolic moment: his strategy of backing the rebels and military manoeuvres on Ukraine’s borders was swapped for a strategy of backing Poroshenko, banking on the effective federalisation of Ukraine.

Russian TV propaganda about US intervention and Western “atrocities”, which have so far boosted Putin’s position, will make any failure to act look weak.

Yet with Ukraine now a signatory to a strategic agreement with the EU, the stakes for escalation are higher.

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