Cable ‘right to prepare’ for hung parliament – pollster
With Business Secretary Vince Cable telling his party that another hung parliament is likely at the next election, Channel 4 News asks a YouGov pollster if he is right.
Speaking at the Liberal Democrat conference, Mr Cable said: “I don’t believe actually that the British people will want to entrust their future to any one party next time – and if Britain wants sustainable growth, competence with compassion, fairness with freedom and more equality not ever greater division, then that government must have Liberal Democrats at its heart.”
So is a hung parliament in 2015 likely? Laurence Janta-Lipinski, a pollster from YouGov, told Channel 4 News that its latest survey – which has Labour on 43 per cent, the Conservatives on 34 per cent and the Lib Dems and Ukip both on 8 per cent – suggested a Labour majority.
There is a good chance of a hung parliament at the next election. Realitically, it is the best the Liberal Democrats can hope for. Laurence Janta-Lipinski, YouGov
But he said that unlike in 1995 and 1996, “Labour are not so far ahead in mid-term to be assured of victory”, and “anyone predicting an election at this time is on to a loser”.
Mr Janta-Lipinski said: “This far out before an election, I wouldn’t feel comfortable predicting a Labour or Conservative government or a hung parliament because all three of them are still possible.”
But he added: “There is a good chance of a hung parliament at the next election. Realitically, it is the best the Liberal Democrats can hope for. Vince Cable is probably right to prepare for a hung parliament.”
Revenge
The Conservatives are unlikely to do as well as they might have done at the next election because their Lib Dem coalition partners have taken revenge on David Cameron for ditching House of Lords reform by standing in the way of a review of constituency boundaries that would have benefited the Tories.
This will help Labour, said Mr Mr Janta-Lipinski. “The electoral system favours the Labour party. Fewer Labour votes are needed to win Labour areas than Conservative votes in Conservative areas.”
“So far out from the election, there’s only so much you can tell: the Liberal Democrats have fallen off a cliff; they are in a real battle with Ukip for third place and will almost certainly finish fourth or fifth in the European elections.”
