Can Scotland have another referendum?

Before Scotland voted No and decided to remain in the United Kingdom the SNP said that the vote was a once in a generation chance. Now Alex Salmond says another poll on the issue is “inevitable” – so what will it take to spark another Scottish referendum?

Europe

Probably the most likely spur for the SNP and the Scottish people to demand a referendum is the question of Britain staying in the EU.

Although the Conservatives and Labour will both campaign to stay in, the SNP oppose the referendum altogether.

It is possible that the very fact that David Cameron is putting the question of Britain leaving to be to a popular vote would be enough for the SNP to lobby for another referendum on Scotland’s place within Britain.

For her part Nicola Sturgeon has hinted at this very possibility – saying it would be ‘democratically indefensible’ for Scotland to be taken out of EU against its will.

She says her party will table an amendment to any bill on an in/out referendum requiring that all four nations of the UK have to agree to withdrawal.

If this veto is not granted her party could use it to justify another poll in Scotland.

The Human Rights Act

In the election campaign the Conservatives vowed to repeal the human rights act and draft a British bill of rights.

Kenny MacAskill, the SNP justice minister, has said the plans risk Scotland becoming “sidelined and marginalised” like Belarus.

Human rights legislation is incorporated into the Scotland Act and withdrawing from it could require changes to certain devolved laws.

Crucially experts have claimed that unilateral repeal of the Human Rights act by Westminster could breach the Sewel Convention – an aspect of the devolution settlement which established “that Westminster would not normally legislate with regard to devolved matters in Scotland without the consent of the Scottish Parliament.”

Removing the Human Rights Act without this consent could violate this convention.

The rise of the SNP

Alex Salmond has claimed that the huge sucess of the SNP has given them a ‘mandate’ to lobby for a second referendum.

He said that the landslide for the party in May’s election, which virtually wiped out Labour and the Lib Dems north of the border, was a ‘staging post’ towards another referendum.

The party campaigned heavily for the Yes vote and many within it’s ranks want another bite at the cherry.

However, Nicola Sturgeon has dismissed that the SNP success would lead directly to another referendum – but she has hinted that the issue could return to the agenda in next year’s Scottish parliament election.

Latest polling suggests that if the SNP add the promise of another referendum on their ballot for the 2016 election it would actually make voters less likely to vote for them – although the majority say it would make no difference to their vote.

People Power

Sheer people power will surely play some role in whether Scotland gets another vote on it’s membership of the UK. Last year Scottish voters rejected independence by 55% to 45%

The latest polling shows that 51 per cent of Scots do not want another referendum, with just 32 per cent saying they want another poll.

Salmond and, crucially, Nicola Sturgeon would likely need a sea-change in popular opinion on another vote to justify the upheaval of another referendum.

According to this Survation poll 17 per cent of Scots remain undecided. Even if Salmond manged to convince everyone of them he would struggle to justify another vote.

And worse news for those hoping for another referendum in the near future – if there was another referendum the Scots would still vote no.

As the above YouGov chart shows, Scots are becoming more, not less, likely to vote no. Recent polling suggests 47 per cent would vote to leave while 53 per cent would vote to stay.

Austerity

One argument Alex Salmond has given for the inevitability of a new referendum is “austerity”. He claims that welfare cuts are putting Westminster on a collision course with Scottish voters.

It is true that SNP MPs voted against the Government’s welfare reforms last week, but the support from most Labour MPs and the Conservatives meant it passed easily 308 voters to 124.

It is true that these policies are less popular in Scotland than they are south of the border.

While some, like Salmond, would argue this shows a chasm between Scottish voters and those from England and Wales others would accept it was democracy in action.

Reading the breakdown of the most recent YouGov polling of Scottish voters might be useful reading for Mr Salmond.

Among other things it reveals the view that most sums up Scottish voters towards the SNP: “Too ready to pick a fight with London”.