26 Dec 2024

Can the UK negotiate a Brexit reset?

Sir Keir Starmer has been invited to attend an informal summit of EU leaders in February – the first time since Brexit that a British prime minister meets exclusively with the EU’s 27 heads of states and government.

The Labour government came to power promising to reset British relations with the European Union and to improve on the Brexit deal agreed in 2020. But after months of the niceties, the gritty hard work of negotiation still lies ahead.

Sir Keir Starmer has been invited to attend an informal “retreat” with EU leaders in February. It will be the first time since Brexit that a British prime minister gets to sit around the table exclusively with the EU’s 27 heads of states and government.

It reflects “a new positive energy in the European Union and United Kingdom relations which we should explore further”, said the President of the European Council, António Costa.

The agenda for that meeting, which is expected to take place in Belgium, but away from the bubble of EU institutions, is due to focus on security and defence, an area which spans the Middle East, the war in Ukraine and migration.

Security and defence were largely left out of the original Brexit deal. Instead, for the past four years, diplomats have had to make use of other formats like the G7 to coordinate on, for example, sanctions against Russia.

It is one area where both sides agree there is potential for a dedicated pact, being dubbed the UK-EU Security Partnership.

The meeting in Belgium will take place just days after Donald Trump is sworn in as US president.

European governments are bracing themselves for various scenarios of what Trump’s second term may bring. Most do not expect him to follow through with a threat to pull out of Nato, but his unpredictability is already driving the EU and the UK closer together.

However, on other topics, British-EU negotiation could prove more difficult.

Labour has pledged to make a veterinary agreement with the EU “to prevent unnecessary border checks and help tackle the cost of food”. This will require keeping in step with EU law.

According to an EU document leaked to The Times, the European Commission will insist that such an agreement necessitates “full alignment”, including accepting the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

Labour seems to be calculating that no one will quibble that a technical alignment could be construed as a betrayal of the EU referendum. But toying with Brexit deals is a dangerous game in British politics.

Then there are other topics on the Christmas wish list for one side and not the other.

For example, the EU would like a ‘youth mobility’ agreement. Initial proposals from the European Commission earlier this year went down badly in London. It is now being branded as “youth experience”, but the idea remains much the same, a scheme by which, as before Brexit, EU nationals could go and live and study in the UK for a number of years.

The British government has no interest in such a scheme, which it sees as expensive and likely to play havoc with the UK’s migration statistics.

Likewise, the UK’s wish for free rein for British artists to perform and exhibit on the continent is not considered viable for the EU because the UK does not want to sign up to EU freedom of movement rules.

Meanwhile, seeing a possible opening, British and EU businesses are lining up to get their own interests included in the reset.

The chemicals and pharma industries, for example, want the UK and EU to mutually recognise each other’s regulators so that they are not subjected to two regimes of red tape every time they send ingredients, parts or finished goods across the border.

Evangelical about any possible economic benefits of reducing trade barriers, the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, on a visit to Brussels earlier this month, said the reset was “about improving both our growth prospects”.

An EU diplomat said that there is openness on their side “to consider ways for strengthening the [European] Union’s cooperation with the UK”. The EU has been carrying out a “mapping exercise of our common EU interests” in preparation.

However, there are those who are sceptical that giving the UK too much could disadvantage European businesses. And many are still scarred by the drama of the Brexit years.

One topic which will have to be faced before too long is fisheries. It was such a hot topic during the Brexit negotiations that only a stop-gap agreement could be made. It expires in 2026.

Some member states want any reset negotiations to include promises for EU fishermen. The UK wants to keep it separate. To do so would once have been considered “cherry picking”, but this time there are plenty of voices in Europe who do not want fishing quotas to spoil the opportunity to bring Britain back closer to the EU.

Sir Keir Starmer and the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are expected to convene the first UK-EU one-on-one leaders’ summit in the spring. This is being seen as the pivotal moment for the UK to set out its stall and potentially for negotiations to begin.