Chances of Israel-Hamas deal are ‘very slim’, says Israeli hostage negotiator

Hamas has angrily rejected Joe Biden’s claim that it’s ‘backing off’ from Gaza ceasefire talks – while accusing the US of yielding to Israeli demands. Washington’s top diplomat Antony Blinken has been trying to generate support for a so-called ‘bridging proposal’ which, he says, Israel has agreed to. Hamas, though, has publicly rejected the current terms.

Sources familiar with the talks say the main sticking point is Israel’s insistence on retaining control of the Philadelphi corridor – the strip of land running along the Egyptian border, as well as the Netzarim corridor, which divides the north and south of Gaza.

Earlier we spoke to Gershon Baskin, an Israeli activist and hostage negotiator, who helped secure the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. I started by asking how likely it is that we’ll get a deal between Israel and Hamas.

Gershon Baskin: The chances look very slim of reaching a deal right now. Even after Secretary Blinken was here and gone. The Hamas response to what has been presented as American bridging proposals was negative. Hamas responded that these proposals are essentially additional Israeli conditions and they reject all of them. This is where we’re stuck, because the objectives of Israel and Hamas are diametrically opposed than they have been since the beginning of the war.

Cathy Newman: The US has said that Netanyahu has accepted its bridging proposals. So what does the US need to do to work on Hamas?

Gershon Baskin: If Hamas is reflecting truth here, and this is a big question, then Hamas is saying that Israel refuses to obligate itself to end the war. Israel refuses to remove all of its troops from Gaza, including along the Gaza Egypt border. And Israel demands a veto on the selection of Palestinian prisoners to be freed, and demands that those who are serving life sentences be deported from the region forever. These are all three conditions that are totally unacceptable to Hamas, and they’re not bridging proposals.

Cathy Newman: Given the US political cycle and Kamala Harris perhaps being more sceptical towards Israel than Joe Biden has been, do you think that kind of ultimatum from America might be forthcoming in terms of putting maximum pressure on Israel?

Gershon Baskin: I don’t know, because American politics seems to be very cautious when applying pressure on Israel. But both President Biden, Kamala Harris and, strangely enough, even Donald Trump, have said that this war must end quickly. So this might be the only issue that the Republicans and the Democrats in the United States agree on – and that’s very important.

Cathy Newman: And yet it is in Netanyahu’s political interests to keep the war going, really, isn’t it?

Gershon Baskin: Well, we need to understand that one man’s political interests cannot overcome the interests of the nation – and this is the situation we’re in today.

Cathy Newman: You give a very bleak assessment of the likelihood of any kind of deal. I suppose that the biggest stumbling block is Israel’s insistence on the complete annihilation of Hamas, which seems an impossibility – and on the other hand, Hamas saying that they want a permanent end to the war. Can you see any way in which those two statements can be resolved in some kind of compromise?

Gershon Baskin: Only with the extreme pressure of the mediators of the United States, of Qatar and Egypt using their doomsday pressure on both sides to make this happen, because it has to happen. Otherwise we will continue this war for months.

Cathy Newman: In the meantime, there is this pressure building. Iran has talked up the idea that it’s got to have some kind of retaliation – and this broader regional war looms. Iran perhaps doesn’t want to get drawn into that war and yet it would feel obliged to if there’s no ceasefire.

Gershon Baskin: That’s right. That’s an added element to the table right now that needs to be taken into consideration. That’s why the United States needs to tell Israel that these are the contours of the deal. And if they don’t comply, the United States will stop fuelling the war by providing Israel with more bombs to drop on Gaza.

Cathy Newman: There’s been a lot of speculation that Iran doesn’t want a kind of wider regional war. Will pressure be brought to bear on Hamas from that quarter, do you think?

Gershon Baskin: I don’t think so. I think that Hamas has been quite disappointed in Iran. Hamas thought that Iran would join the war from October 7th, and they did not. They have refrained.

Cathy Newman: Doesn’t that give some cause for optimism that Iran hasn’t piled in after the October attacks?

Gershon Baskin: Yeah, I suppose that we could look at it that way and say the fact that Iran isn’t starting a world war, that’s a good thing for sure. Iran will respond eventually, because their sovereignty was violated.

Cathy Newman: What kind of shape do you think that would take?

Gershon Baskin: If it was an eye for an eye, they would find some Israeli somewhere in the world, in Israel or outside, to assassinate. That might be an appropriate so-called proportionate response. I don’t expect a massive attack against the people of Israel. I think they will be much more selective and strategic.