Confidence Problems in Asia

In a little-reported incident that started last week, Chinese and Philippine naval ships faced off in the South China Sea in a dispute over a fishing ground that could have escalated into something quite nasty. A Philippine patrol boat tried to detain eight Chinese boats and arrest their crews for illegally trawling in Philippine waters. Two Chinese ‘surveillance’ ships then moved in to protect the fishermen from ‘harassment’ from Philippine soldiers – and a five-day long stand-off commenced.

The fishermen were busy filling their hulls with sea cucumber, grouper and lobster in an area the Philippines calls the ‘Scarborough Shoal’ – located 120 miles from the country’s main island of Luzon. However, China claims this area for its own – and virtually all of the rest of the South China Sea as well – even the bits that are close to the coasts of other nations. This ‘no-limits policy’ puts it on unfriendly terms with many of its near neighbours, including Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei.

This particular confrontation fizzled out when the Chinese fishing boats were allowed to leave – an embarrassing climb down for the Philippines which had previously insisted on confiscating the fishermen’s catch. But challenging China’s growing assertiveness in the region is becoming an increasingly risky thing to do. And it seems the Philippines has not got the confidence to do it.

Today, however, the region’s other emerging super-power put the world on notice – it won’t be intimidated by China.

India successfully tested its most advanced long-range missile. With a range of more than 3,000 miles, military analysts say the new ‘Agni-V’ puts India and China on an ‘equal-footing’ when it comes to long-range weaponry – which is another way of saying that both countries can blow each other up, if they want to.

The launch was celebrated as a major achievement in India today. The Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, called it “another milestone in our quest to add to the credibility of our security and preparedness and to continuously explore the frontiers of science.”

Interestingly, analysts and commentators used more human terms to describe it all – India would now be more ‘robust’ and ‘assertive’ in its dealings with China, they said. I picked up this comment from Bharnat Karnat at New Delhi’s Centre of Policy Research: “The diplomatic and political fallout will hopefully be that India will be more confident in dealing with China.”

So, missiles and other military hardware buy you ‘confidence’ – the confidence to argue, walk-out, negotiate, or even go to war when you want.  Perhaps that is why South Korea unveiled two new ‘cruise missiles’ capable of hitting ‘any target’ in North Korea today. It makes South Koreans feel confident – despite the fact that a war between the two Koreas would almost certainly result in mutual annihilation.

Of course it would be nice if countries in fast-militarising Asia had similar confidence in international law and dispute resolution institutions, like the International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea (ITLOS). But nuclear-warhead equipped missiles are somehow easier to understand – and the problem for the Philippines is that they don’t have any.

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