Cry ‘go’ for Harry, England and St George?
When Harry Redknapp was acquitted of tax evasion charges, it cleared the way for him to replace Fabio Capello as England manager this summer. But could he succeed where so many have failed?
The FA is on record as saying that the next manager of the national football team will be English.
In fact, until Sven-Goran Eriksson’s appointment in 2001, there had never been a non-English national coach. But since then – with the brief exception of Steve McClaren’s 2006-7 tenure – the national team’s destiny has been in the hands of a foreigner.
And judged by results and qualification for international tournaments, Eriksson and Fabio Capello, who quit on Wednesday evening, have done at least as well as any of their English counterparts.
Eriksson’s England achieved quarterfinal status in every major competition they entered. Capello guided the national team to easy qualification for the South Africa World Cup (where they failed badly) and to the Euro 2012 finals.
The Italian had a significantly higher percentage of wins with England than any of his predecessors, while Eriksson comes fourth – marginally behind Ron Greenwood and Glenn Hoddle.
Read more: Fabio Capello resigns as England manager
Competitive versus friendly
Harry Redknapp’s record as manager of Tottenham compares well with the England records of many past managers. Out of 180 games in charge at Spurs, he has won 91 – or just over 50 per cent.
Graham Taylor and Terry Venables both recorded win ratios of less than one every two games. Even Bobby Robson, who took England to the World Cup semifinals in 1990 and the quarterfinals four years earlier, only achieved a 49.5 per cent international win rate.
It’s far more likely England will play a team ranked 190th than it is that Spurs will play a Conference team. Thomas Earl, Soccerbase
If the FA was looking to choose from Premier League managers, however, it would do better to to target the Scottish Sir Alex Ferguson (59.3 per cent win rate with Manchester United), Frenchman Arsene Wenger (57 per cent with Arsenal), or Capello’s compatriot Roberto Mancini (58.5 per cent with Manchester City).
But Thomas Earl, of the Soccerbase website, warns that there is no simple equivalence between managing a club and managing the national side.
“It’s far more likely England will play a team ranked 190th in the world than it is that Spurs will play a team in the Conference league,” he told Channel 4 News. “What’s more, the England manager statistics include a significant number of non-competitive friendlies.”
Stability, calm and success
It may be that England’s destiny is to succeed only occasionally. Stefan Szymanski, a sports economist and author, with Simon Kuper, of Why England Lose (to be republished as Soccernomics later this year), says only a truly exceptional manager could hope to break that mould.
“The tragedy in English football is that we never had Brian Clough as a manager. He would probably have won something because he was so exceptional and unique. If Ferguson or Wenger were to manage England, they might also make a difference.
“As far as Redknapp is concerned,” he told Channel 4 News, “I would expect him to do well if he becomes England manager and to win most of their games – but not to win the World Cup.”
We should look on this era of foreign managers as being one that has actually stepped up our game. Stefan Szymanski, sports economist
Indeed, Mr Szymanski’s view is that we may come to look back on the Eriksson-Capello years as a period of stability, calm, and success.
“As the old saying goes, you’ve got to be in it to win it – and they got us in it. As England fans, we want to be able to enjoy seeing the national team play in tournaments. People have incredibly short memories. We missed out on way too many tournaments in the past with English managers.
“I’m not saying Harry Redknapp will be as bad as them, but we should look on this era of foreign managers as being one that has actually stepped up our game. We really want to continue with that relative improvement – and then pray we get lucky.”
On the day the Tottenham boss is cleared of tax evasion, a future in England’s managerial hothouse may not be in the forefront of his mind. But the fact that Redknapp emerged from Southwark Crown Court untainted by scandal will do his career prospects no harm.
Whether he goes on to become national coach and to enjoy the luck that inevitably accompanies success in any major tournament remains to be seen.