Democrat loss is ‘on Joe Biden’ not Harris, says Republican pollster

We’re joined by Nayyera Haq, who was a senior director in the Obama White House administration, and Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

Matt Frei: What was the secret sauce of his victory?

Whit Ayres: American presidential elections tend to be referenda on the incumbent administration. And Kamala Harris was a key member of an administration whose job approval was mired at 40 per cent. She was essentially running for a second Obama term, excuse me, a second Biden term, especially given her inability to articulate a clearly different vision. And no American president or administration has been re-elected with a 40 per cent job approval.

Matt Frei: Okay, so did Trump win it or did the Democrats lose it?

Whit Ayres: Both. I don’t think that it’s Kamala Harris’ fault. I think that given her skillset and her experience level, she did a remarkably good job with the time she had available. This loss is on Joe Biden and his stubborn refusal to get out of the race in time for the Democrats to have a robust primary process where they could have nominated a stronger candidate who is not connected to this administration.

Matt Frei: And that was going to be my question.

Nayyera Haq: He sounds like a lefty American, and this is where we end up meeting at this moment.

Matt Frei: Yeah, that was my question. Come on, let’s hear it. What do you think? The desk blocker in chief in that building over there should have gone out ages ago.

Nayyera Haq: The data is showing that this was not a moment for Harris, especially if Harris was going to continue to ally herself with her own president. It is such a difficult position that she had 100 days to come out from under and it didn’t work. I will say that the other headwinds are the fact that Donald Trump never conceded and never left public stage.

Matt Frei: All true. But, I don’t want to gang up on you here with it, but the question really is, had Joe Biden opted out earlier, you would have had a proper primary race. She would have been tested. There might have been another candidate. And we will never know.

Nayyera Haq: For context, though, right, for our viewers across the pond right now, this is a two-year long process here in the United States to find the next president. Had it been shorter, people’s memories would also be in the moment addressing ideas of the moment. So the primary season is insanely long in the United States. At the time, Joe Biden was the only person who had defeated Donald Trump. He aged in public view. And the system wasn’t designed to do anything other than wait for him to step aside.

Matt Frei: Whit, how is it possible that Donald Trump didn’t just keep his coalition of voters together, but built on it when he was frankly insulting to so many different segments of the society?

Whit Ayres: People remember Donald Trump’s pre-pandemic economy as far superior to the Biden-Harris economy. Prices were lower for food. Prices were lower for gas. Interest rates were a third of what they are now, and people remembered that favourably, particularly people who live paycheque to paycheque.

Nayyera Haq: We need to dig into who we’re talking about, ‘people’. Because within women voters, white women overperform for Trump more than ever before, going from the first 2016 election, 52 per cent, to 69 per cent for Donald Trump. Black women, however, consistently, for Kamala Harris. So there is a disconnect here that does have racial undertones.

Matt Frei: But we didn’t expect that to be quite that way, did we? Because people thought that white women would also vote for reproductive rights, would vote against the kind of stuff that he was saying.

Nayyera Haq: They did, in swing states where abortion was on the ballot, to make it a state protection, whether it was a blue seat in Maryland, swing state like Wisconsin. Those same women voted to protect their personal rights, did not vote for Harris.

Matt Frei: In Britain and elsewhere, they’re looking at America and tearing their hair out and saying, ‘why on earth can this country not elect a woman?’ The second time around, defeated by the same guy.

Whit Ayres: It’s not a matter of not electing a woman, it’s a matter of not electing either one of these women. It’s very possible that you could have a different female candidate who was more skilled and more experienced who could get elected, but not Hillary Clinton and not Kamala Harris.

Nayyera Haq: The idea of more skill and experience than Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris is kind of laughable given their pedigrees in the elections and what they’ve done. I will say that given Britain’s experience as well, a female candidate from the liberal party is probably not destined for America anytime soon.

Whit Ayres: To be precise, maybe a more popular candidate than a more experienced one, or skilled.

Nayyera Haq: Or a Republican woman.