‘Essentially Russians don’t care about Syria’ says security expert

Professor Mark Galeotti is an expert in modern Russia and Senior Associate Fellow at the defence and security thinktank, the Royal United Services Institute.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: You’ll have heard the White House analysis that Russia was not just unwilling to save Assad, it was unable to. Is that correct?

Mark Galeotti: There’s some truth in that. But in fairness, we also have to notice the degree to which the speed with which Assad’s regime essentially just dissolved, in the face of the rebel onslaught, really would have given any power – very little opportunity – to actually intervene. It was never, after all, that the Russians had large amounts of ground forces there. At one point they had the Wagner mercenaries, but essentially they were there to provide long-range air support for the Syrian forces. And if the Syrian forces aren’t going to fight, there’s not really much that the Russians could have done.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: So obviously, in the West, this is seen as something of a defeat for Russia as well. Is that how Russians will see it?

Mark Galeotti: Yes. I mean, we have to be clear about one thing. Essentially, Russians don’t care about Syria. It was, as Putin saw it, a necessary military move and geopolitical move, back in 2015. But the world has moved on. The key things for the Russians are the naval base and the airbase, and they are still desperately hoping that they can reach some kind of a deal to hold on to them. So I think for most Russians at present, yes, I think they realise that it’s one of their client allies who has been deposed. They’re not really that bothered if we see them forced out of these bases, especially if it’s some kind of fall of Saigon type humiliation, then people might think otherwise. At present, though, I think actually the Russians aren’t quite sure really what to make of it, quite frankly.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: I mean, how realistic is it that the Russians can negotiate with HTS to hold on to those bases? Surely that’s impossible.

Mark Galeotti: I wouldn’t quite say impossible. I mean, I still think that the odds are against, but nonetheless, it certainly seems to be something that the Russian government thinks is a possibility. We have to acknowledge that, especially when it comes to the Middle East, the Russians are extraordinarily – well, you can call it – pragmatic or you can call it cynical. But in any case, they are very happy to make deals with partners who yesterday may have been their sworn enemies. Given that HTS is not in absolute control of the country. And if you look at the moment, I mean, Syria is in a terrible state, but Syria’s main trading partner is Russia. The Russians do have something to offer, especially if HTS doesn’t want to just simply become a Turkish proxy. They will be looking to broaden their base. So, as I said, the Russians unexpectedly seem to be – I wouldn’t say upbeat – but perhaps a little bit less depressed than one might have thought. They still seem to think that there is a chance. Whether they’re right, we’ll just have to wait and see.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: You also wonder quite why the Russians allowed Assad to come in so easily and grant him asylum, because obviously from over here, that in itself looks quite embarrassing for Putin.

Mark Galeotti: Yes, but bear in mind, Assad was a client and the Russians feel that they have to stand by their clients. Otherwise, who else would actually ally with the Russians in the future? In some ways, it’s part of the package deal. ‘We will help you stay in power as long as we can. If things go terribly, though, don’t worry, you can join this bizarre collection of ex-dictators who live in this Moscow suburb of Barvikha. So I think, in part, it’s just maintaining face in that respect. It also might be part of the negotiations that some people are saying they had with Turkey, that it’s better to give Assad a way out rather than force him into some kind of last-ditch defence in Damascus with whatever handful of remaining loyalists he could still bring together. This way, at least he was neatly expelled from the country and his regime very quickly and relatively peacefully so far disappears in the face of the HTS onslaught.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: Now, America, Britain and the Middle Eastern countries are talking about international processes and the United Nations, as if these are things that are going to play great roles in the future of Syria. That is far from certain, looking at it right now. But what role, if there is any kind of international process, what would Russia’s aim be in that? What would they be trying to get out of it?

Mark Galeotti: The Russians would want two things. One is, to be blunt, they would want to have some kind of role. And this is the classic position. In some ways, they feel that nothing can be resolved without their presence and their interests being considered. And if anyone tries to do it without them being involved, they will try and be a spoiler to the process. So in part, it’s just simply that they want to be seen to be part of the outcome. But also, to be honest, from the Russians’ point of view, they don’t want to have to deal through institutions like the UN. They’re already reaching out to Turkey. They’re already reaching out to whoever they can speak to in Syria. From their point of view, the West can stick to these institutions and such like. They will actually try and make some very pragmatic deals on the ground with whatever power brokers they can connect to. And in some ways, if they can, in the process, slow down the international institutional approach to give them the room to manoeuvre, they gladly will.