Euro 2024: Spain are better, but England will win – and here’s why 

Spain are the best team at the European Championships by a mile, but England will win the final because being the best doesn’t mean being victorious.

I don’t say that because I live and was born in England and am some jingoistic idiot. Or because I’m unaware of how good Spain actually are. Spain play the best football, have dangerous and fearless young talents and if this game was a quarter final, Spain would win this convincingly.

But sometimes there are intangibles in sport that can’t be shown or proven. It’s not a feeling. It’s the evidence of history. The best team rarely wins the Euros. Spain have been brilliant in every game so far. But they’ll have one poor game – unfortunately for them it’ll be in a final. Couple that with England peaking at the right time and it’ll be England lifting their first ever European Championship trophy.

Penalties. When it comes to penalties, this England team take them very seriously in a way that previous ones didn’t. Gone with your nonsense cliches of ‘penalties, it’s a lottery’ . Gone are the days of just hit it hard and hope for the best. Harry Kane, Cole Palmer, Bukayo Saka, Ivan Toney love taking penalties under pressure, they have their process which they won’t deviate from, they execute with a technique they trust. Of course anyone can miss but this team aren’t scared to miss and that’s the difference.

Let us talk about luck. It is said by many fans that Southgate, and by proxy England, have been lucky. The draws and teams they’ve had over not only this competition but previous ones are, on paper, lesser rated and ranked nations. But Southgate hasn’t navigated the route through the competition considering who he can avoid. Just like he doesn’t decide who’s in the competition. He’s just won his games and tried to top his groups.

It is not luck that France ended up on the ‘tougher side of the draw’. They should’ve bloody won their group. The Bellingham goal against Slovakia, the Saka goal against Switzerland, the Watkins goal against the Netherlands, these are luck. This is a manager who believes in his team and has made a decision to sub or not sub based on what he thinks is right. Let’s look at what luck is. Luck is shooting from 30 yards, the direction of the ball is deflected on target and goes in, that’s luck. And even then I’d argue by forcing the issue, there’s an element of control from the player. Has Southgate had fortune during his tenure? 100%. But who hasn’t.

It’s rare to get to two Euros finals in a row. So England won’t have many chances to win a trophy. Spain are very good. But England will live with huge regrets if they don’t seize this moment. I think they will.