Exclusive: Poll shows Conservative lead in ‘Red Wall’ seats

The Conservatives have staged a turnaround in “Red Wall” constituencies, according to exclusive polling carried out for Channel 4 News.

The results, by research company J.L. Partners, suggest Labour have seen a decline since November 2020, with its six point advantage turning into a four point Tory lead.

It shows leadership has been a key driver in the turnaround in both parties’ standing.

Sir Keir Starmer has fallen into negative territory, going from +7% to -3%.

Boris Johnson has switched from a net positivity rating of -2% to +7%.

When voters were asked to say why they were not voting Labour, the main reason given was: “It is unclear what Keir Starmer stands for.”

The Channel 4 News/J.L. Partners poll is based on a representative sample of voters in 45 seats which the Tories won from Labour in 2019 in northern England and the Midlands.

Translated into votes, researchers estimate Labour would win back 18 of the 45 seats it lost in the 2019 general election.

In November last year, our polling showed Sir Keir’s party was projected to win back 36 seats, with the Conservatives only holding onto 9 seats.

Now the Tories would keep 27 of their 45 seats.

James Johnson, J.L. Partners Co-Founder, said Labour’s share of the vote was still up from 2019, because the party was taking votes from the Liberal Democrats:

“These ‘centrist liberals’ – who voted Lib Dem because of Brexit and didn’t like Corbyn – are also keeping Labour afloat in national polls.

But the Conservatives are winning back people who previously said they were undecided, and winning back defectors from Labour.

16 months into the parliamentary term, only 3% of 2019 Conservatives say they would directly switch to Labour.”

You can read the full report, tables and methodology at jlpartners.co.uk/red-wall