The cut
In a leaked letter, the Defence Secretary Liam Fox told the Prime Minister that the current strategic defence and security review “will be brutal if we do not recognise the dangers and continue to push for such draconian cuts at a time when we are at war”.
The letter mentions three potential cuts to Britain’s maritime capabilities: a “reduction in overall surface ship numbers”, “deletion of the amphibious shipping”, and “deletion of the Nimrod MR4”.
The background
Traditionally the party of the colonels, there is no doubt the Tory party care about the military. And the robust tone of this letter shows Dr Fox is fighting his corner in the midst of a defence review that is being carried out at the same time as the spending review.
So, can a review of Britain’s defence needs really be rigorous if it’s being constrained by the government’s plan to make cuts?
The analysis
The defence budget is £37bn and the MoD has been told to expect cuts of 10-20 per cent. We won’t know for sure where the axe will fall until the end of October.
But the Defence Secretary’s letter gives us an insight into what’s on the table. He mentions a “reduction in overall surface ship numbers”, a “deletion of the amphibious shipping (landing docks, helicopter platforms and auxiliaries)” and the “deletion of the Nimrod MR4”.
Professor Malcolm Chalmers, who advised the former Defence Secretary Bob Ainsworth and now works at the Royal United Services Institute, told CutsCheck that these savings would affect maritime defence – not air or land – and that what was being envisaged were “deep cuts in the surface fleet”.
Britain has 24 frigates and destroyers – its main surface ships. In the letter, Dr Fox said “a presence in UK waters, the Falklands and in support of the deterrent is essential”. So, assuming naval support for these operations stays, Professor Chalmers suggested nine surface ships could be cut, leaving just 15.
What about the other cuts? “Amphibious shipping” is used by the marines for landings from sea. The main role of the Nimrod MK4 reconnaissance plane is to protect Trident nuclear submarines. The first only came into service this year.
Professor Chalmers said losing these would cut the maritime forces by 15-20 per cent, saving up to £2bn. But he also said these were likely to be matched by “comparably severe reductions in air capabilities and some significant reductions in ground capabilities in order to reach the total savings targets demanded”.
So what could those other cuts be. A number of options seem to be in play: reducing the number of Tornado and Harrier fast jets, cutting back Britain’s tank fleet in Germany, and reducing army numbers. But the last would be difficult while Britain is in Afghanistan.
Another proposal is to scrap plans for two new aircraft carriers at an initial cost of £5bn.
The long-term savings would be substantial, according to Bernard Gray, who carried out a review of defence procurement last year.
Writing in the Times, he said: “The initial construction cost of the two carriers, £5 billion, is only a tiny fraction of their total cost. Aircraft to fly from them would cost another £10 billion, ships, submarines and aircraft to defend them billions more, and annual crewing and maintenance costs hundreds of millions on top.”
And then, of course, there’s the £20bn cost of replacing the Trident nuclear deterrent. The decision could be delayed, but the Conservative-led coalition is committed to a replacement, so substantial savings are unlikely.
The verdict
With speculation about how the MoD will make savings of 10-20 per cent, Liam Fox has shone a light on areas where cuts are likely – Britain’s maritime defence. As Malcolm Chalmers has said, the leaked letter signals “deep cuts in the surface fleet”.
But the reality is the cutters are unlikely to stop at ships. Britain’s fast jets are also in line for cuts, as is the tank fleet in Germany. Most dramatic would be the cancellation of the two aircraft carriers, which would yield big savings over the years.