The claim
“The Conservatives talk about a cap on non-EU immigration, forgetting to tell you that 80 per cent of immigration comes from the EU.”
Ed Davey, The BBC Politics Show, 2 May 2010
“David Cameron says you can put a cap on immigration. It is complete nonsense, since he knows that 80 per cent of people who come into this country come from the European Union. You can’t cap those numbers.”
Nick Clegg, Leaders’ debate, 30 April 2010
The background
The Tory leader likes to talk tough on immigration, and tells voters he will enforce a cap on people coming to the UK. But the Lib Dems raised what they saw as a flaw in the Conservative pledge; they said 80 per cent of Britain’s immigrants come from the EU.
European law says citizens of other EU countries have a right to live and work in the UK. The process of moving to Britain is slightly more complicated for citizens of newer EU states – via worker registration schemes – but the formal opportunity nonetheless exists.
So are Clegg and Davey right to say that the vast majority of immigrants come from Europe and therefore wouldn’t be included in any cap?
The analysis
Clegg suggested in the final leaders’ debate that as 80 per cent of the people coming into the UK were from EU countries, any plans for a cap on immigration were “nonsense”, as the majority of immigrants already had a legal right to come here. It is something his foreign affairs spokesman Ed Davey repeated on Sunday.
It is worth noting that, according to the Tory manifesto, the Conservative’s cap policy is actually to set “an annual limit on the number of non- EU economic migrants admitted into the UK to live and work” – so not all “immigrants”, rather just those coming from outside the EU and looking for work.
So where did the Lib Dems get their figures from? FactCheck was told their claim was based on a government response to the House of Lords Committee on Economic Affairs report in June 2008 called The Economic Impact of Immigration.
The response makes an assertion, unfortunately unsourced, that: “A cap aimed at economic migrants from outside the EU and excluding dependents, as some have suggested, would only cover 2 in 10.”
This research relates to economic migrants. The Lib Dems say it was clear from the overall context of both Clegg’s and Davey’s comments that they were talking about economic migration in relation to Conservative policy.
But they did say “immigrants” not non-EU migrants – and the research above applies to the latter. For example it only applies to those looking for work in the UK and discounts other migrants such as students.
The Lib Dems also cite a speech by Home Secretary Alan Johnson in which he said of those moving to the UK in a 12-month period: “Around one in six (85,000) were returning British citizens… one third (198,000) were from the EU, and have a legal right to live and work here; around another third (175,000) were international students – who the Opposition say will not be included in their fixed, annual quota.”
The speech says that in 2008, total immigration stood at 590,000. Again sadly there is no source for this figure, but according to the Lib Dems by using these stats, once 85,000; 198,000 and 175,000 is subtracted from the 590,000 total – you are left with 132,000, which translates to 22 per cent coming to the UK from outside the EU.
However, this assumes that returning Brits and all international students are all regarded as immigrants from the EU.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) paints a different picture to the Lib Dems. The most recent estimates, also from 2008, show that in total 538,000 people moved to the UK – including 178,000 from other EU countries, 157,000 from Commonwealth countries, and 121,000 from other foreign countries.
This clearly shows a much higher overall proportion of people from outside the EU coming into the UK than Clegg and Davey’s 20 per cent.
The same ONS figures show that even if you only use the stats for those coming to the UK for “definite work” it shows 70,000 from the EU, and 44,000 from outside the EU – again much different to the Lib Dems’ 80 per cent claim.
Or only those “looking for work”, it shows 29,000 from the EU, and 23,000 from outside the EU.
The verdict
The Lib Dems told FactCheck that: “The point they [Clegg and Davey] were trying to make is that the Conservative cap will only apply to 20 per cent of immigrants to the UK, which is born out by the statistics.
“The Conservatives will not cap EU immigration; dependents or students, so they are only capping non-EU migrants who come here to work – which is currently 20 per cent of total UK immigration. This is the point Nick and Ed were making.”
The Tories also say that: “The Conservative limit applies only to non-EU economic migrants, who make up around one in five immigrants.”
So it appears the Lib Dems and the Tories are in agreement after all.
However, in criticising the Tory plans, both Clegg and Davey specifically said 80 per cent of immigrants come from the EU – a very broad claim not backed by up all the stats.
