Cathy Newman checks it out
It’s turning into the nightmare before Christmas for Nick Clegg. After trying to turn the Lib Dems into a responsible party of government, he now faces the spectacle of his MPs facing four different ways during Thursday’s vote on proposals to increase tuition fees.
They can vote for, against, abstain or go AWOL. It’s messy to say the least.
A senior Government member told me the Lib Dem leader would make clear at tonight’s meeting of the parliamentary party that ministers would be expected to vote for higher tuition fees, but would not lose their jobs if they abstained.
In practice though only a couple of ministers are expected to abstain, and the whips don’t believe any will vote against the policy. If they did, however, they’d have to resign. So how are the MPs lining up? The team has done a ring round.
The analysis
There are 17 Lib Dem frontbenchers.
It has been reported that two of them – Equalities Minister Lynne Featherstone and Pensions Minister Steve Webb – are likely to vote against plans to raise fees.
But FactCheck understands that Ms Featherstone will vote in favour or abstain.
We haven’t received an answer from Mr Webb, Education Minister Sarah Teather or the Lib Dem Deputy Leader Simon Hughes.
Transport Minister Norman Baker, Business Minister Ed Davey, Deputy Government Chief Whip Alistair Carmichael and whip Norman Lamb are undecided, as are ministerial aides Jenny Willott and Mike Crockart.
But Mr Baker’s ministerial colleagues say they believe he will support the Government. Defence Minister Nick Harvey is also thought likely to vote in favour.
Gordon Birtwistle, aide to Treasury Chief Secretary Danny Alexander, is not saying how he will vote.
The following 15 Lib Dem backbenchers have said in the past they will vote against: Andrew George, John Leech, John Pugh, Roger Williams, Mark Williams, Ian Swales, Sir Menzies Campbell, Charles Kennedy, John Hemming, Julian Huppert, Greg Mulholland, Simon Wright, Tim Farron, Mike Hancock and Bob Russell.
Martin Horwood may vote against, Stephen Williams will either vote against or abstain and Adrian Sanders says he will abstain.
Sir Robert Smith will not be present at the vote.
The following backbenchers are undecided: Sir Alan Beith, Tom Brake, Malcolm Bruce, John Thurso, Stephen Lloyd and Tessa Munt.
Those almost certain to vote in favour are: leader Nick Clegg, Treasury Chief Secretary Danny Alexander, Foreign Office Minister Jeremy Browne, Scottish Secretary Michael Moore and whip Norman Lamb.
Energy Secretary Chris Huhne is in Mexico for climate change talks, but is reported to be prepared to return early to vote with the Government.
Whip Mark Hunter has given the impression he will vote in favour.
Backbenchers Andrew Stunell, David Laws, Dan Rogerson, Don Foster and Annette Brooke would not comment.
FactCheck managed to gauge the opinions of 49 of 57 Lib Dem MPs.
Among Conservatives, David Davis has said he will vote against a fees rise. Lee Scott will not vote in favour and it’s thought Tracy Crouch may abstain.
Cathy Newman’s verdict
Now that there’s no longer any prospect of mass abstensions by the Lib Dems, the number of rebels isn’t sufficient to give the Government real cause for concern.
But the last few weeks has exposed the Lib Dems as a deeply divided party. Of 17 frontbenchers – ministers and whips – it looks as though most will support the Government; but at least 15 backbenchers are likely to rebel.
So although Thursday’s vote is all but certain to go the Coalition’s way, it will do so at the expense of the unity and credibility of Nick Clegg and his colleagues.
