Last month, the Biden administration gave Israel an ultimatum: massively increase the aid getting into Gaza within 30 days, or risk consequences that could include losing out on US military support. 

That 30 day window expired yesterday. FactCheck analysis of both Israeli and UN data shows that, whichever figures you rely on, Israel has missed that target by a significant margin. 

Aid reaching Gaza fell significantly after Rafah offensive

We’ve analysed aid data going back to October last year, when Israel began its assault on Gaza following Hamas’s 7 October attacks. 

We’ll start by looking at figures from UNRWA – the UN relief agency that Israel’s parliament recently voted to ban – but we’ll look at Israeli government sources too.

UNRWA data says that before the war, an average of 500 trucks per day were entering Gaza – that’s humanitarian and commercial trucks combined. (So not just trucks carrying humanitarian aid from NGOs, but also goods for purchase from private traders.)

Following Hamas’s 7 October attack last year, Israel launched an all out blockade of the Gaza Strip – meaning virtually no aid reached Palestinians in that first month of war. UNRWA figures indicate only about nine trucks per day on average.

By April of this year, the volume of aid had increased to a peak of about 190 trucks per day.

Then in early May, Israel began its assault on Rafah – a city in southern Gaza. This offensive resulted in the closure of the crucial Rafah crossing, which was the main route for aid and supplies to enter the territory. 

While alternative entry points have come into use since then, aid supplies have steadily fallen since the closure of the Rafah crossing in May – falling to around 40 trucks per day last month, and only around 30 trucks per day in November so far.

UNRWA figures shown for November may be revised upward as more commercial data comes in.

Many of the goods supplied by private traders are too expensive for displaced Palestinians to afford, while many cannot access cash or bank accounts to pay for them. 

So if we exclude commercial trucks and look only at humanitarian aid, the picture looks even more stark. 

Israeli figures – a different story?

Israeli government data puts the amount of aid entering Gaza about 30 per cent higher on average than UNRWA’s. Though, like UNRWA, it also shows a marked decline in aid volumes since May.

An anonymous Israeli official told Associated Press that, for the month of November so far, they’re averaging “50 trucks per day to northern Gaza and 150 per day to the rest of Gaza”. If true, that would represent a significant increase since October.

But even if that suggested total of 200 trucks per day is borne out, it would still fall well short of the US target.

And it remains well below the 500 trucks per day which the UN says is still the minimum volume required to meet the needs of the population.

Israel rejects claims that it is deliberately restricting aid, saying it opened a new crossing for aid to enter yesterday. This was another of the US demands on Israel.

This week, foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar said Israel is discussing the issue with the US to see how it “can respond in difficult circumstances to the humanitarian demands.”

Despite the aid target being missed, the US has said it will not limit Israel arms transfers, telling Associated Press “we, at this time, have not made an assessment that the Israelis are in violation of US law.”

The Biden administration said Israel has made some good but limited progress in increasing the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza.

(IMAGE CREDIT: VASSIL DONEV/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock.)