By Brian O’Flynn, Claire Wilde, Helen Johnson and Georgina Lee.

Between 7 October last year and 20 September this year, Israel struck Lebanon five times for every one Hezbollah assault that hit Israel. 

That’s according to FactCheck analysis of conflict data from the US non-profit ACLED.

And we find these attacks resulted in thirty deaths in Lebanon for every one fatality in Israel. 

What is Hezbollah?

Hezbollah is an Iran-backed military and political group based in Lebanon, which borders Israel. 

It was founded in 1982 following Israel’s second invasion of Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s military wing – one of the largest paramilitaries in the world – is designated as a terror group by the UK, EU, US and Israel. Its political wing has representatives in the Lebanese parliament, though it does not rule the country. 

The organisation has been in conflict with Israel on-and-off since its founding, most notably during the 2006 war.

Israel and Hezbollah have been in low-level conflict again since Israel began airstrikes and then invaded Gaza, in response to Hamas’ 7 October attacks. Hezbollah claims its attacks on Israel are in solidarity with Palestinians.

Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon have displaced over 100,000 people from their homes.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah rockets have forced tens of thousands of Israelis to evacuate from the north of the country. 

Last week, dozens were killed and thousands injured in Lebanon after thousands of pagers and walkie talkies used by Hezbollah exploded.

Analysts around the world, as well as Lebanese government and Hezbollah officials, believe Israel was behind the attacks. 

Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has not directly commented on the allegation.

What the conflict data tells us

Our analysis is based on data collected by the US non-profit Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), and covers the period up to last Friday – so includes pager and walkie talkie attacks.

However, it does not account for the significant escalation in violence and fatalities over the past week, which included a reported 500 people killed in a single day by further Israeli strikes on Lebanon. 

But the data does give us a sense of the scale of violence on each side over the past year.

It’s important to note that ACLED data records “events” of cross-border violence. An “event” generally means use of weapons occurring in a single location at a given time. 

So for example, a barrage of missiles would be counted as one event – rather than each missile being counted separately.

According to ACLED figures, Hezbollah struck Israel in 1,623 distinct events over that period.

Over the same period, Israel struck Lebanon in 8,099 events – five times as many.

The ACLED also records fatality data linked to these violent events.

Over this period, there were 28 deaths in Israel linked to the 1,623 Hezbollah attacks, while there were 798 deaths in Lebanon linked to the 8,099 Israeli attacks. 

That means there were nearly thirty deaths in Lebanon for every one death in Israel. 

What about intercepted attacks?

Israel is equipped with advanced defence systems which can shoot down missiles before they strike the country – the most well known of which is called the Iron Dome.

You may be wondering if the reason for the discrepancy between the volume of attacks on either side is because Israel shoots down most of Hezbollah’s attempted strikes – but the ACLED data does not bear this out.

As well as the data on “successful” attacks, ACLED records instances of disrupted weapons use, e.g., where a missile is shot down before reaching its target.

If we include attacks that are intercepted, Israel still launched four times as many attacks on Lebanon than Hezbollah launched on Israel. 

Update: 9 October

An earlier version of this article contained excerpts from a longer statement provided to FactCheck by the IDF ahead of publication. The statement is now available to read in full below.

“These claims are baseless, unfounded and fundamentally false. In reality, over 9,000 Hezbollah projectiles (including RPG’s, rockets, explosive drones, and mortars) have crossed over to Israeli territory since Hezbollah launched its unprovoked attack on Israel on October 8th. This figure excludes the hundreds of projectiles which failed and fell inside Lebanon since the 8th of October.

“Thus, the number of casualties on the Lebanese part is a false attempt to create a numbers game of proportionality. These numbers are an oversimplification of the reality that Hezbollah launched a war on Israel. Furthermore the oversimplification is not indicative of excessive IDF attacks so much as a direct result of Hezbollah’s incessant exploitation of civilians. The stark contrast between that figure and the number of casualties in Israel is first and foremost a reflection of the IDF’s commitment to the protection of its civilians, including the evacuation of over 60,000 of Israel’s northern residents and its investment in a world renowned aerial defense system.

“The IDF strikes are in accordance with international law. The IDF takes all feasible precautions to mitigate harm to civilians — an undertaking that is made impossibly more arduous when Hezbollah goes above and beyond to embed itself in the civilian population.”

(Image credit: ATEF SAFADI/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock.)